Launched into the final stretch before the elections of September 24, the parties are refining their objectives. But the vote should not change the current political balance in the upper house of Parliament.
“We don’t expect a revolution”we euphemize among the Greens, when we are ironic on the right about “an election with unbearable suspense”. The 2023 version of the senatorial elections, the campaign for which has entered the home stretch, should not deviate from the tradition of stability which usually marks this election. On September 24, almost half of the Senate (170 seats out of 348) must be renewed. For this election by indirect suffrage, citizens are not called to the polls: only the electors, mainly appointed within municipal councils, vote.
The right has always dominated within the Luxembourg Palace, with the exception of a socialist interlude from 2011 to 2014, and the next deadline should not change the situation. However, no party is neglecting this election with multiple issues, a few weeks before the parliamentary debates on the budget and immigration. The election is also a good test for the strength of the coalitions, on the left and in the majority.
The right intends to remain the leading force in the hemicycle
With 145 elected officials, the Republicans appear calm. Their number of seats should change very little, just like that of their allies in the centrist Union (57 seats). Between them, they should therefore retain the majority in the upper house. “Our prospects oscillate between a loss of five seats or a gain of two seats at LR, and a loss of four seats or a gain of three among the centrists”, calculates Hauts-de-Seine senator Roger Karoutchi. In Paris, LR could lose at least one seat due to dissidence: several right-wing lists are in the running, facing a left-wing union list.
Minimal changes, which should not prevent Yvelines senator Gérard Larcher from being elected president of the Senate for the fifth time, on October 2. “As the Assembly is very divided, the weight of the Senate is all the more important”, insists Roger Karoutchi. For the right, the challenge is to maintain its control over several key positions in the institution: presidency, vice-presidencies, quaestorship and chairs of commissions. “There should be no change at this level, the distribution of positions has been the same since 2017. It is crucial for the right to remain in the majority in the joint committee.”, continues the senator. This body, decisive in the event of disagreement between the Assembly and the Senate, was for example required to decide on pension reform in March.
On the left, the objective of 100 seats
Nine seats are what the left is missing to reach the symbolic bar of 100 senators. The socialists (64 seats currently), the communists (15) and the ecologists (12) left united in around fifteen departments, including Isère and Paris. Environmentalists plan to win three to four elected officials and have also set themselves the objective of “feminize their group”. “It would be a great victory, because few groups will progress”underlines Olivier Bertrand, in charge of elections to the executive office of Europe Ecologie-Les Verts.
At the PS, we are aiming for seats in Seine-Saint-Denis, Pas-de-Calais and Paris. As for the Communists, they are playing big, with more than two thirds of their seats renewable (11 out of 15), and a few municipalities lost in 2020, i.e. as many fewer electors. “I will do everything so that there is a communist group [au moins 10 sénateurs] in the month of September”nevertheless assured Public Senate Senator Eliane Assassi, who is not running.
On the strategy side, the left wants to nationalize this territorial vote. “This is the first election since the imposed pension reform”notes Pierre Jouvet, spokesperson for the PS, who bets “on the discontent of mayors, on the front line on subjects that the executive does not deal with, such as back-to-school inflation” or the financial difficulties of communities. The left-wing parties hope to take advantage of this to strengthen their place within this counter-power, also nicknamed “the chamber of territories”.
Rebellious France, angry at not having been associated with the PS-PCF-EELV agreement, accused the three parties of“bury the Nupes for the senatorials” and decided to present its candidates in several departments, notably Maine-et-Loire, Manche and Pyrénées-Atlantiques. But while LFI has, by far, the most deputies within the left-wing coalition in the Assembly, its chances of entering the Senate with independent lists are very low, given the few local elected officials who are there. are affiliated.
Few ambitions within a divided presidential majority
For the presidential majority, this election promises to be delicate, due to lack of good results in previous municipal elections. “We do not have sufficient territorial anchoring, and then there are dissident lists, for example in the constituency of French people abroad”sighs Anne Genetet, deputy for French people established outside France. Discussions with allies MoDem and Horizons may have lasted several months, but they did not lead to a national agreement. The troops of Emmanuel Macron, François Bayrou and Edouard Philippe are therefore campaigning separately in a few departments, such as Hauts-de-Seine or the North, with the risk of a dispersion of the votes of the major voters.
Thanks to union lists presented in most constituencies, the Macronists should nevertheless limit the damage. This will be essential to maintain their group around the 24 current elected officials, an objective set by its president, François Patriat. Edouard Philippe, who traveled personally to support certain Horizons candidates, hopes for his part to win seats to assert his identity in the upper house, where the five senators of his movement are integrated into the Les Indépendants group (14 seats). Like Horizons, the MoDem currently has only five senators, who sit in the centrist Union group, allied with the right.
The RN could enter the Luxembourg Palace
The far right is an ultra-minority in the Senate and the National Rally cannot hope to make the same historic breakthrough as in the Assembly (89 deputies elected in June 2022), especially after its disappointing results in the last municipal elections. But he aims to win four to five seats, notably in Pas-de-Calais, the North and Moselle. Insufficient to reach the bar of ten senators required to create a group, but it would still strengthen the strategy of “credibility”we hope within the party, which lost its only senator in 2022 after Stéphane Ravier joined Eric Zemmour’s party.
“Thanks to the example we set at the National Assembly, we reassured many local elected officials”, wants to believe Julien Odoul, spokesperson for the RN. Despite his modest hopes,Marine Le Pen’s movement is leading an active campaign and does not intend to cross this ballot. “Each election is important and brings us a little more credit, with a view to 2027”adds the party spokesperson.