What do we hear in the streets of Paris these days? More and more hostile and even violent slogans against President Emmanuel Macron. As in: “Louis XVI, Louis XVI, they beheaded him. Macron, Macron, we can start again. »
It would be bad humor as we often hear in the demonstrations if it had not been taken up by deputies from La France insoumise. Not very chic for a parliamentarian…
What happened to President Macron, who was re-elected last April just over a year ago? A fairly easy victory by the way, with 58.5% of the vote in the second round.
But the first danger signals for the president came a few months later, in June, during the legislative elections when his party only won 38.5% of the vote and lost its majority in the National Assembly.
Very soon after his second and final election as president, Mr. Macron found himself with few allies and many against him.
Today, it is a very unpopular pension reform that weighs down the popularity of the president. She had to be dropped during the first term – COVID-19 had a wide back. But, while it was clear he was going to bring reform back in his second term, Mr Macron chose not to talk about it so much during the election campaign, preferring to say he “was ready to move”.
In fact, he was too busy dramatizing the consequences of a victory for his opponent, Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally. With the result that we know.
French analysts who examine President Macron’s situation say he received an exclusion mandate rather than a membership mandate. That is to say, he invited voters to say that they did not want Mme Le Pen as president, but that he did not obtain a strong mandate to carry out his program. Hence a short-term victory, which suggests a difficult term for the remaining four years.
PHOTO JUSTIN TANG, THE CANADIAN PRESS
Justin Trudeau at the Liberal Party of Canada Convention in Ottawa on May 4
Which brings us to Justin Trudeau and the tone of the speeches we heard at the Liberal Party of Canada convention, which took place last weekend.
We spent a lot, a lot of time there talking about the Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, and portraying him as a supporter of a muscular right Donald Trump. It was the Prime Minister who did it himself in his speech on Thursday evening.
It’s easy in front of a partisan audience, but it will be more complicated during an election campaign and particularly at a leaders’ debate when Mr. Poilievre can answer him directly.
We no longer count the number of neglected people who have managed to reverse the trend by showing that they were not at all the risky choice that we had tried to portray.
Liberals should know, that is exactly how Stephen Harper became Prime Minister. They had done everything to give him an extremist image when he appeared completely reasonable during the election campaign, and even more so before a Liberal Prime Minister, Paul Martin, who was to bear the heavy legacy of the sponsorship scandal.
Justin Trudeau, in 2015, also benefited from a smear campaign that the Conservative government had begun upon his election as Liberal leader. Expectations were very low and Mr. Trudeau had no trouble exceeding them.
But now, after a decade in office, it is Mr. Trudeau who will have to defend the legacy of his years in office, possibly in the context of a recession. Which often means spending most of the election campaign on the defensive.
Of course, it is always possible for him to try to campaign for support, to propose projects in which the citizens will recognize themselves, but after 10 years in power and a pandemic which has been costly, there are not many ideas… or money in the coffers.
This is why it is much easier to attack Pierre Poilievre, especially since the latter has the annoying habit of putting his foot in the dishes.
As some of his deputies say, “he is capable of the best and the worst. Often on the same day. But he has the qualities of his faults: when he attacks, he does not go halfway and, often, his attacks carry. It would be very imprudent for his opponents to underestimate his ability to find the flaw that he can exploit in his opponents.
But the greatest danger is still that which awaits the government: to think that it will be enough to demonize the adversary to win another mandate. One thing is certain, when we see the tone used at the last Liberal convention, we can think that this is now the strategy.
Just in case he is tempted by this option, Mr. Trudeau should give his friend Mr. Macron a call.