(Paris) Served by a campaign without much relief and opponents who are struggling to impose themselves clearly, outgoing President Emmanuel Macron, not yet an official candidate, still appears to be the favorite in the April presidential election in France.
Posted at 6:43 a.m.
Anxious to appear as a statesman focused on the major affairs of the moment – management of the health situation in France, all-out diplomacy around the Ukrainian crisis – Emmanuel Macron has still not entered the arena of presidential election and delays the announcement of a candidacy that is not in the slightest doubt.
To the chagrin of his rivals, who accuse him of campaigning without saying so, and for his own benefit, since this situation has benefited him so far.
The outgoing president has indeed remained stable for months in voting intentions, around 25% in the first round, and winning in the second round, regardless of his opponent.
Facing him, a fairly strong far right, but divided between two candidates, Marine Le Pen (17.5% in the first round according to a recent poll) and Éric Zemmour (14.5%), and a weakened left, none of which main representatives does not exceed 10%.
The candidate of the Republican right, Valérie Pécresse, who appeared to be the most dangerous rival for Emmanuel Macron, is starting to lose points in the polls, at 15.5%.
“Macron tries to maximize his status as president, because that is what differentiates him from other candidates. He has every interest in maintaining this image, because it is essentially what puts his opponents at a distance, ”analyzes political scientist Gaspard Estrada.
Reporting as late as possible is a strategy already used by its predecessors. In 1965, General de Gaulle had officially launched a month before the election, a tactic successfully repeated in 1988 by the socialist François Mitterrand.
Two months before the first round of the election, scheduled for April 10, “we do not see in the polls a trend that endangers the president,” notes Mr. Estrada.
“All these balances can be upset, but, at this stage, the vote for Emmanuel Macron takes on the appearance of a default choice. A choice even out of spite, if we observe the lack of enthusiasm for this presidential election, ”said a recent editorial in the daily Le Monde.
Volatility
Elected in 2017 when no one expected him, after having benefited from the discredit of other candidates, the break-up of traditional parties, and the blocking vote on the far right when he found himself facing Marine Le Pen in the second In turn, Mr. Macron, 44, is aiming for a crucial second term to carry out unfinished reforms and carve his image in history.
If he wins in April, he will be the first president to be re-elected for a second term since Jacques Chirac in 2002. Right-wing President Nicolas Sarkozy and socialist Francois Hollande served only one term.
However, uncertainty remains high and a lot can change between now and April, with many voters still having to make their choice, and the risk of abstention remaining high.
A sign of the volatility of the political situation, 39% of voters did not express a choice, according to a recent study. Of these, 20% are “probable voters”, and 19% “probable abstainers”.
“As long as we do not have the final configuration of the candidatures, at the beginning of March, after the validation of the sponsorships, we are on the wind”, judge Anne Jadot, lecturer in political science at the University of Lorraine. We cannot exclude “the elimination of an important candidate, for lack of sufficient sponsorship, who would reshuffle the cards”, she underlines.
A presidential candidate in France is validated only after having obtained 500 sponsorships from elected officials, mayors or parliamentarians. For the time being, only Mr. Macron, although not a candidate, has obtained them. Some candidates, notably Marine Le Pen and Éric Zemmour, are struggling.
The final list of candidates will be announced on March 7 by the Constitutional Council.