President Emmanuel Macron is far from certain of retaining an absolute majority in the National Assembly, even if his coalition should remain the leading force in France, after the first round of legislative elections marked by a strong breakthrough in the united left and the extreme right.
We will have to wait for the second round next Sunday to find out whether Emmanuel Macron, who was re-elected on April 24 for a second five-year term, will be able to retain this absolute majority or not and, beyond that, his ability to freely apply his policy of reforms.
In addition to the spectacular rise in power of an alliance of left-wing parties around Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the main lesson of the election is the strong progress of Marine Le Pen’s far-right party and the collapse of the traditional right.
The Together! of the president and his centrist allies would win between 275 and 310 seats according to an Ifop-Fiducial projection and 255 to 295 according to Ipsos. The absolute majority in the National Assembly is 289 (out of 577 deputies).
In voice, the left alliance Nupes of the tribune of the radical left Jean-Luc Mélenchon obtained between 25 to 26.2% of the votes against 25 to 25.8% for the coalition Together!, either in a pocket handkerchief.
But more than one in two voters (between 52 and 53% according to estimates) shunned the ballot boxes on Sunday, a new record which highlights the disinterest of the French for a ballot now overshadowed by the presidential election.
“The presidential party is defeated,” said Jean-Luc Mélenchon on Sunday evening, calling on his troops to “surge” in the second round of the legislative elections.
Mr. Mélenchon could however suffer from a lack of reserve votes in the second round and the high abstention, according to experts.
“Serious Warning”
The National Rally (RN), Marine Le Pen’s party, finalist in the presidential election on April 24, comes in third position just below 20% of the vote, far ahead of the traditional right which should lose its status as the leading opposition group. .
The far-right party, which has always been penalized by the majority electoral system in legislative elections, could manage to exceed 15 deputies, a first since 1986, when there was a dose of proportional representation, which would allow it to form a parliamentary group.
Herself a candidate in her stronghold in northern France where she obtained 55% of the vote, Ms. Le Pen called “all [ses] voters to confirm and amplify their vote” where RN candidates will be qualified for the second round, in order “to send a very large group of patriotic deputies to the new National Assembly”.
These legislative elections thus confirm the broad recomposition of the French political landscape initiated with the election of Mr. Macron in 2017.
A majority not absolute but relative to the Assembly would complicate the path of the reforms that President Macron wishes to undertake, on pensions in particular.
“It is a very serious warning which is addressed to Emmanuel Macron”, notes the pollster Brice Teinturier, recalling that “it is 7 points less than in 2017”.
“It is first of all a very clear decline in the presidential majority compared to 2017”, adds another expert Frédéric Dabi, also stressing that “the united left has succeeded in imposing a narrative on the French”.
Ministers on probation
Mr. Macron mobilized at the end of the campaign, calling on the French to give him a “strong and clear majority”.
He posed as a bulwark against the “extreme”, targeting the radical left of Mr. Mélenchon and the far right of Marine Le Pen, synonymous according to him with “disorder” for France.
The executive has also insisted in recent weeks on its intention to vote in July on a set of measures for purchasing power, in order to counter inflation which is straining household budgets and weighing on business accounts.
In the unlikely event that the left led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon wins an absolute majority, imposing on him an unprecedented cohabitation for a president who has just been re-elected, Mr. Macron would be deprived of practically all his powers in domestic politics.
Mr. Mélenchon, a veteran of French political life, has established himself as his main opponent by taking the lead of an unprecedented alliance bringing together socialists, communists, environmentalists and his own movement, La France insoumise.
He led the most active campaign, according to commentators, to transform this election into a “third round” of the presidential election.
The election takes place in a climate of concern among the French in the face of soaring food and energy prices.
The final result of the legislative elections in a week could influence the composition of the executive formed on May 20, fifteen of its members, including Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne, being candidates. However, they will have to resign in the event of defeat, under an unwritten rule but already applied in 2017 by Emmanuel Macron.