The war in Ukraine has been going on for a month now. No need to be a prophet to already predict who will be the losers and the winners. Let’s start with the first ones.
Big loser: Ukraine. Even if it emerges militarily a winner from this war which it did not want, Ukraine will count thousands of dead and wounded, millions of displaced persons, will see its towns destroyed in part or in whole, its territory devastated. It will take decades to recover humanly and materially.
Second loser: Russia. Whether Vladimir Putin achieves his military goals or not, the population’s standard of living will decline, thousands of his soldiers will die, and his international influence (political, financial, etc.) will be reduced to almost nothing for decades.
third losers, ex aequo : the European Union and NATO. Unable to agree otherwise than to applaud President Volodymyr Zelensky, supply arms to Ukraine and impose sanctions on Russia, these two organizations are reissuing the Munich agreements of 1938. As Churchill said, they preferred shame to the war, they will have both.
The winners: the arms manufacturers. To increase the military budget of the NATO countries to 2% of the GDP, it will be necessary not only to buy back the weapons used during the conflict, but to manufacture others, if possible more efficient. Let’s be cynical: if you have money to invest, look to the stocks of Lockheed Martin, Raytheon Technologies, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamic, and others. Years of juicy profits to be expected. All that, of course, if we avoid a nuclear war.