Juraj Slafkovsky will have an uptick in production this season, according to many, and perhaps even reach the 75-point plateau, for the most optimistic, following his breakout last winter. After all, the NHL’s first-round pick produced at a 70-point pace in the second half of the season.
However, the performance of young players, even gifted ones, is anything but linear. Let’s analyze the performance of 10 forwards drafted in the top 5 since 2016.
What did they do three years after being drafted after a promising season? To our great surprise, only three had an upward performance, Jack Hughes, Pierre-Luc Dubois and Tim Stützle. And again, Stützle and Dubois would see their production drop in their fourth year. We will talk here strictly about the point output, not about progression or regression in the different phases of play.
Matthew Beniers: DROP
Seattle, 2e in 2021
Beniers stayed at the University of Michigan after being drafted, but joined the Kraken late in the season and had nine points in 10 games. The following year, he had 57 points, including 24 goals, in 80 games as a first-line center and won the Calder Trophy as the NHL’s top rookie. Last year, three years after being drafted, he had just 37 points in 77 games. He turned 21 in November, a late in the jargon of the industry.
Mason McTavish: STABLE
Anaheim, 3e in 2021
McTavish had 43 points in 80 games in his first full NHL season, two years after his draft year. He was given a bigger role again in his second season and had one fewer point, but in just 64 games. So it’s not a drop-off for him.
Kent Johnson: DROP
Columbus, 5e in 2021
Like Beniers, Johnson got an NHL audition late in the season, less than a year after being drafted. In his first full year, he surprised with 40 points in 79 games. Last winter was tough. He started the season in the AHL and had just 16 points in 42 games in Columbus. Like Beniers, he’s a late who celebrated his 21st birthday very early in the season, unlike Slafkovsky who will only turn 21 on March 30.
Lucas Raymond: DROP
Detroit, 4e in 2020
Raymond was a finalist for rookie of the year in 2021-22 after scoring 57 points, but was edged out by teammate Moritz Seider. His output dropped to 45 points the following year, but he rebounded for 72 points, including 31 goals, last year as a 21-year-old.
Jack Hughes: INCREASE
New Jersey, 1er in 2019
Hughes had a tough first season at 18, with just 21 points, including seven goals, in 61 games. The gifted but rather frail center improved in his second year with 31 points in just 56 games, before exploding in his third season with 56 points in 49 games, a full-season performance of 94 points. He had 99 points two years ago, and 74 points in 62 games last year. He will have to stay healthy, though.
Tim Stützle: INCREASE
Ottawa, 3e in 2020
A modest first year at 18 with 29 points in 53 games, an interesting increase with 58 points, including 22 goals, in his second, then an explosion for 90 points, including 39 goals, in his third, at 21. His performance nevertheless fell by 20 points last year, at 22.
Andrei Svechnikov: DROP
Caroline, 2e in 2018
A profile that could resemble that of Slafkovsky. This power winger started out relatively modestly with 37 points at 18, then 61 points, including 24 goals, in only 68 games in his second year, 74 points over a full season. His 42 points in 55 games in his third year were not bad, but certainly not an increase. He averages 64 points, including 27 goals, per season.
Brady Tkachuk: STABLE
Ottawa, 4e in 2018
Tkachuk averaged about 50 points per season over an 82-game season. It took until his fourth season before he broke the 65-point mark. He scored 35 and 37 goals the last two seasons, his fifth and sixth in the NHL.
Nico Hischier: STABLE
New Jersey, 1er in 2017
Known for the quality of his defensive play as well as his offensive flair, Hischier had a stable performance in his first three seasons, with around fifty points, but there was a slight increase in his second year (55 points brought back in 82 games). It was not until his sixth season that he flirted with the point per game mark.
Pierre-Luc Dubois: INCREASE
Columbus, 3e in 2016
Dubois played one season in junior after being drafted. He had a good first year with 48 points, including 20 goals, and didn’t suffer from the bad luck of his second year, with 61 points, including 27 goals. He had 49 points in 70 games the following year, his third, but had a solid playoff run with 10 points in as many games. At 26, he will try to revive his career in Washington after only having 40 points last year in Los Angeles.
So be warned: Juraj Slafkovsky’s career will not be at a dead end if he doesn’t amass 60 points this season…
Quote of the day
My kids tell me it’s the best sweater they’ve ever seen me wear.
Former Canadiens captain Max Pacioretty on professional tryout with Toronto Maple Leafs