Looking back at 2023 | The annus horribilis of the CAQ

(Quebec) Despite some good successes, François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) ends the year 2023 damaged and disoriented, in free fall in the opinion polls.

It is the disenchantment between Quebecers and the CAQ, if we trust the most recent survey from the Léger firm, which suggests a drop of 16 points in one year to the benefit of the Parti Québécois (PQ).

Despite having a majority in the House, the CAQ has continued to self-banana throughout the year, which even ended this fall by causing internal discontent.

“I started the year being for the third link. Around April I became against the third link and in October I became for the third link again.

“I am planning my year 2024 and, to tell you the truth, I asked Santa Claus for a compass,” admitted Mr. Legault in a tone of humor during the traditional Christmas wishes at the Blue living room.

This is the first time since coming to power in 2018 that the CAQ has suffered the anger of voters, having experienced a honeymoon and sitting at the top of the polls for four years, even during the pandemic.

SAAQ and 3^e link

L’annus horribilis of the CAQ began with what it itself describes as a “fiasco” at the Société de l’assurance automobile du Québec (SAAQ).

For several weeks last winter, Quebecers were practically unable to obtain services, due to hiccups surrounding the SAAQ’s transition to a digital platform.

The Minister of Digital, Éric Caire, responsible for the government authentication service (SAG) on the platform, went so far as to wonder why he did not receive “praise”.

One crisis did not wait for the other for the Minister of Transport, Geneviève Guilbault. In April, she was sent alone to announce the abandonment of the third Quebec-Lévis highway link project.

This project was a flagship commitment of the CAQ, which had long promised to carry it out at all costs, in order to gain support in the regions of Quebec and Chaudière-Appalaches.

Taken by surprise, CAQ deputies said they were very disappointed (Minister Bernard Drainville even cried), but it was the only responsible decision to take for taxpayers, argued François Legault.

Meanwhile, the Legault government obtained from Ottawa an increase in health transfers of 1 billion per year, while Quebec’s request had always been 6 billion.

In May, during the CAQ congress, Mr. Legault underwent a vote of confidence and obtained an unprecedented score of 98.61%. Delighted, he redirected his attacks towards the PQ of Paul St-Pierre Plamondon which was gaining ground.

Salary of deputies

Also in the spring, the Minister of Justice, Simon Jolin-Barrette, tabled Bill 24 increasing the base salary of MPs by 30% (from $101,561 to $131,766).

On June 6, elected officials from the CAQ and the Liberal Party of Quebec (PLQ) voted for this improvement, while Québec solidaire (QS) and the PQ opposed it. The bill was adopted by a majority.

A Léger poll conducted for QS suggested that three out of four Quebecers were against it, but Premier Legault explained that elected officials had the right to earn “as much money as possible” for their children.

His whip, Éric Lefebvre, affirmed for his part that his workload was such that he could only afford to see his mother once a year.

This 30% increase came into effect during negotiations for the renewal of collective agreements for public sector workers, who were offered approximately 13% over five years.

Mr. Legault predicted a “warm autumn”.

Jean-Talon and the Kings

The Prime Minister surely thought he would hit a home run by announcing, in September, the largest private investment in Quebec history: 7.3 billion to the Northvolt company.

In the minutes following the announcement, he jubilantly confirmed that he was going to run again in 2026.

But the following week, he lost the riding of Jean-Talon, in the capital region, to the PQ. The next day, he promised to resurrect the third Quebec-Lévis link that he himself had buried.

Many observers of the political scene agree that the tipping point for the CAQ, in an already difficult year, was its crushing defeat during the by-election in Jean-Talon.

In an attempt to reconnect with the electorate, the Legault government snatched the unpopular tramway project from the hands of the mayor of Quebec, Bruno Marchand, and entrusted it to the Caisse de dépôt.

And the Minister of Finance, Eric Girard, announced a subsidy of up to 7 million to bring the Los Angeles Kings to Quebec so that they can play two preparatory matches.

The announcement of this grant came a week after he presented his economic update, in which 8 million was missing for food banks, the minister having warned that finances were “tight”.

The economic statement, however, included good news: an agreement with the federal government to invest 1.8 billion over five years in the construction of 8,000 new social and affordable housing units.

On the other hand, the subsidy to the Kings, which has become the symbol of the government’s disconnection, has provided other ammunition to the unions demanding better salary conditions.

Within the CAQ itself, MPs had the courage to publicly express their dissatisfaction by saying that this subsidy to the millionaires of the National Hockey League did not fit with their “values”.

Strikes

On November 23, the Autonomous Federation of Education (FAE) launched an indefinite general strike.

Minister Drainville added fuel to the fire by encouraging “school principals, school service centers, teachers” to give “materials” to children in order to help them continue their learning.

The FAE and the Centrale des syndicats du Québec (CSQ) accused the Minister of Education and Prime Minister Legault of wanting to “blame” teachers.

Mr. Legault had asked teachers to stop the strike for the good of the children, a statement very poorly received by union members on the picket lines.

In the meantime, the government adopted a bill to reform school governance in order to give the minister more powers, including that of appointing and dismissing the general directors of school service centers.

Bill 23 also creates the National Institute of Excellence in Education with the mandate to guide the school network towards educational practices supported by evidence.

Furthermore, while the common front began a second strike sequence, the Minister of Health, Christian Dubé, chose a gag order to pass Bill 15, his reform of the health network.

Outraged, the opposition denounced this other “mixing of structures” and highlighted the deterioration of health services under Mr. Dubé. On December 5, investigations were opened after the death of two patients in the crowded emergency rooms of Anna-Laberge hospital.

Immigration, fiscal pact and universities

After explosive statements from Mr. Legault during the election campaign, Minister Christine Fréchette presented an immigration plan which was well received. However, she ended the year hit with a formal notice for delays in family reunification.

Andrée Laforest concluded a new “fiscal pact” with the municipalities, giving them, among other things, more taxing powers, but Prime Minister Legault then ordered them to reduce their spending before using it.

Finally, Minister Pascale Déry dealt a hard blow to McGill and Concordia by raising tuition fees for out-of-province and international students, and by requiring these universities to increase the French language of their clientele. Bishop’s University was granted exceptions.

The measure, which caused an outcry, was to help slow the “decline of French”.

2024 will be better, says Legault

Even if the year 2023 was difficult, François Legault does not want to change the recipe and assures that things will be better next year. “I am not discouraged pantout “, he declared during a press conference to take stock of the fall session.

He acknowledged that 2023 has not been “politically easy” because there has been “a lot of controversy”. Despite this, he does not intend to leave, nor to reshuffle his council of ministers or to expel his chief of staff, Martin Koskinen.

Not only is the CAQ now less popular than the PQ, Mr. Legault himself is unloved, to the point that he is now the least popular prime minister in Canada, according to a recent Angus Reid poll.

“I think that at the end of the day, when we are going to deliver services, I am confident that we will regain confidence,” declared the Prime Minister.