limiting global warming below +2°C would prevent 80% of deaths linked to high temperatures

Limiting global warming to +2°C, the goal of the Paris Agreement, would prevent hundreds of thousands of heat-related deaths in the Middle East and North Africa, according to a study published on Tuesday 4 april. Modeling, published in the scientific journal The Lancet Planetary Health (study in English)calculates that reducing greenhouse gas emissions, caused by the human consumption of coal, oil and gas, would prevent 80% of heat-related deaths, compared to a scenario without reduction.

Without emission reductions, the study projects that 123 people for every 100,000 people in the region will die from heat-related causes each year by the end of the century, 60 times more than today. This average applies to the 19 countries studied, but the rate could be as high as 423 deaths per 100,000 people in Iran. Shakoor Hajat, the lead author of the study, assures AFP that the consequences would be “catastrophic” if the 2°C limit was not respected.

Specialists from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine have looked into the risks in this region as Dubai prepares to host COP28, the annual United Nations (UN) summit on climate change. The 196 countries that signed the Paris Agreement in 2015 have already committed to limiting global warming to well below 2°C compared to the pre-industrial era and if possible to 1.5°C, as well as to decarbonize their energy sources. But current policies are not aligned with these objectives: according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), they lead to a warming of +3.2°C.