(Paris) The production plans of the world’s major car manufacturers for zero-emission, electric or hydrogen vehicles will be very far from meeting the objective of limiting global warming to +1.5°C, warned on Tuesday an NGO.
Posted at 8:53 p.m.
InfluenceMap, a think tank specializing in the relationship between the economic and financial world and the climate crisis, has combined data from IHS Markit (S&P Global) on automotive production in the world with a 2021 study by the International Climate Agency. Energy (IEA) on scenarios for achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 and meeting the Paris Agreement’s most ambitious goal of “limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels” .
While road transport accounts for nearly 20% of CO emissions2the IEA calculates that to meet this objective, zero-emission passenger cars (ZEV) should represent 57.5% of total sales in 2030 and 20% of the total stock of cars in 2030, then 86% in 2050.
In 2021, electric vehicles represented 5.9% of sales and hybrids 2.4%, notes the study.
However, according to production forecasts (data from March 2022) analyzed by InfluenceMap, 68% of vehicles produced in 2029 will still be thermal combustion, including hybrid vehicles, compared to 32% electric and 0.1% to hydrogen.
Of 12 major global manufacturers studied (including no Chinese), only Tesla, which produces only electric vehicles, and Mercedes-Benz (56% of ZEV in 2029) are in line with these objectives.
They are followed by the other large German groups BMW (45%) and Vokswagen (43%), the Japanese manufacturers being at the back of the pack, Nissan (22%), Honda (18%, but the data used does not take into account account the latest announcements of the group in terms of ZEV, underlines the study) as well as Toyota (14%).
The other manufacturers studied are Stellantis (ex-PSA-FCA, 40%), Ford (36%), Renault (31%), General Motors (28%) and Hyundai (27%).
Without going into the details of the Chinese market, the study notes that electric vehicles should increase there from 12% of production in 2021 to 40% in 2029.
Regarding the different segments of the market, InfluenceMap notes that the persistent enthusiasm for SUVs, which are heavier and consume more energy, which are expected to grow from 39% of the global market in 2020 to 47% in 2029, risks “cancelling many of the reductions in emissions linked to the increase in electric vehicles”.