The Liberal stronghold of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun could well fall next Monday: a recent poll by the firm Mainstreet Research reveals that the Bloc Québécois candidate, Louis-Philippe Sauvé, is ahead in voting intentions in this riding where by-elections are to be held, the result of which will have national significance.
The poll gives 29.6% of support to the Bloc Québécois. The Liberal Party of Canada candidate, Laura Palestini, comes in second with 24.1%, and the New Democratic Party (NDP) candidate, Craig Sauvé, is favoured by 23.0% of respondents. The Conservative Party of Canada candidate, Louis Ialenti, is practically not in the race with 7.3%.
The poll was conducted Saturday through Monday through automated calls to 443 adults who live in the riding. Its margin of error is 4.7 percent, 19 times out of 20.
He confirms that the Bloc Québécois maintains its leading position, while another poll conducted on September 3 and 4 by the same firm gave 30.7% to the Bloc, 23.3% to the Liberals, 19.4% to the New Democrats and 8.1% to the Conservatives. The Canadian Press was able to consult this survey, the results of which had not been made public.
On Wednesday, Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet was already smelling the scent of victory. “It smells good, it smells very good,” he told volunteers as he entered the campaign office. And to journalists, he explained that he had “reached the point where we are running toward the finish line, without looking at the distance of those who may be behind.”
“Nothing is decided yet”
But in an interview with The Canadian PressOn Wednesday evening, Mainstreet Research President Quito Maggi warned that “nothing is decided yet.”
The most interesting thing about the poll, he said, is the NDP’s strong showing in just a few days, a situation he attributes to Jagmeet Singh’s announcement that his party is tearing up the deal that allowed Justin Trudeau’s Liberals to stay in power without too much fear.
He said he and his team decided to conduct the second poll after observing in the first that voting intentions for the New Democrats increased significantly on the second day of the poll, the day after the announcement.
And that NDP surge could continue, he believes. “Could they catch up? Yes, it’s possible.”
Conversely, Mr. Maggi believes that the Bloc made “a big mistake” and could lose some feathers after having indicated in recent days that it plans to support the Liberals during confidence votes in exchange for elements that are important to it, such as increasing pensions for seniors or more powers in immigration for Quebec.
“Voters were saying, ‘We weren’t going to vote for the NDP because they supported the Liberals. And now our party, the Bloc, is going to support the Liberals? Maybe I should change my vote in that context,'” he illustrated.
The hope of the PLC
As for the Liberals, their “path” to victory, he says, rests on a division of the vote and the hope that the opposition vote does not “coagulate” around one of the other parties.
Get-out-the-vote, or efforts to encourage voters to go out and vote on election day, is an important element in elections, particularly in by-elections, when the outcome will not change much in the composition of the House of Commons, explained political scientist Geneviève Tellier of the University of Ottawa.
And, beyond the electoral machines, the Bloc Québécois benefit from a bonus at the ballot box. Their hidden card lies in the fact that their voters are generally older than those of their opponents.
That’s because an Elections Canada study released last year estimated that 46.7% of people aged 18 to 24 turned out to vote in the last general election, compared to 74.9% of their fellow citizens aged 65 to 74.
On Monday, it will be decided in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, much more than a regional race, insisted Professor Tellier, while all observers will dissect the message that the result will send.
“We want to know if the Liberals are capable of holding strong and if what happened in Toronto-St. Paul’s (where they suffered a crushing defeat in June) was just a blip or if it’s a major trend that is emerging,” she summarized.
According to her, a defeat would be “dramatic” for the Liberals. As for the Bloc and the NDP, it will be a question of determining who positions themselves as the best alternative to the Liberals.
In the last election, former Justice Minister David Lametti was re-elected with 42.9% of the vote, finishing far ahead of his opponents. The Bloc candidate received 22.1% of the vote, the NDP candidate came in third (19.4%) and the Conservative candidate received 7.5%. The People’s Party candidate received 3.4% and the Green Party candidate received 3.0%.