Justin Trudeau’s Cabinet retreat this week felt like a déjà vu. And for good reason: the themes discussed and the remarks hammered home were, with a few nuances, the same as at the same time last year. The Prime Minister, a little tired of having to repeat it, also once again defended himself from having become a burden for the Liberal troops. Having been bogged down for months in political repetition, should his government be surprised that its desire for new momentum is, on the contrary, still bogged down?
The ministers, gathered in Halifax, may have insisted, like their leader, that their team meets the needs and expectations of Canadians, but they themselves did not seem entirely convinced. Being asked repeatedly whether they should take a page from the American Democrats and dump their boss in the hope of a surge in popularity probably did not help matters.
This comparison of the Canadian and American political contexts is flawed. The electoral fatigue expressed towards the Trudeau government does not stem only from the Prime Minister’s popular disgrace, although it is real, but also from the wear and tear of the Liberal brand, after nine years of implementing a resolutely progressive program that has abandoned the center of the political spectrum. In the United States, Democratic voters did not reject a second Democratic term, before Joe Biden’s withdrawal, but were rather worried about the cognitive abilities of the candidate in the running and outgoing president.
Mr. Trudeau is not wrong to argue that the dynamics are different. However, his government’s status quo is not necessarily wise. Canadian polls have been unanimous for a year, placing the Liberal Party far behind Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party. For the Liberals to limit themselves to recalling their record and their current program, without any new content, is a strange strategy. Because Canadians are clearly no longer listening to them.
Justin Trudeau and his ministers did make two important announcements. Canada will also impose, like the United States, customs duties on Chinese electric vehicles, as well as on steel and aluminum from the same source. China’s response will not be long in coming. Canada’s admission of low-skilled temporary foreign workers will also be tightened, a measure similar to a Conservative reform from ten years ago. These are perhaps the first signs that the Liberals are preparing to compete with Pierre Poilievre in his own fields.
The adaptation of the Liberal strategy remains subtle, however. As if, ignoring the predictions of these same polls, Prime Minister Trudeau remained convinced that the electorate would end up seeing the right path to his virtue. Or become disillusioned with the Conservative option. Unless other political shifts follow this fall or a Speech from the Throne renews the Liberal program in September. However, time is beginning to cruelly run out for the party.
A reversal of popular favor is not completely impossible. Half of Liberal voters considering voting for Pierre Poilievre this time around are primarily motivated by their disaffection for Justin Trudeau, and 40% of Conservative voters feel the same way. Such a reversal is highly unlikely, however, warns Abacus CEO David Coletto, in the conclusion of the same poll.
Especially since the climate is not going to calm down anytime soon for Justin Trudeau. Next month’s by-election in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, in Montreal, is shaping up to be a close one. A close victory or, worse, a defeat like the thaw suffered in Toronto-St. Paul’s in June would rekindle the nervousness of the caucus. If the Liberal Party suffered such a fate even in Quebec, the last bastion of Liberal support in Canada, the anxiety would no longer be confined to elected officials in Ontario.
Added to this is the probable departure for the provincial scene of Quebec minister and lieutenant Pablo Rodriguez after 20 years in federal politics. A new adventure in the Quebec Liberal Party, if it were confirmed, would not guarantee him a happier future. It would nevertheless be difficult for Liberal voters and activists not to see it as abandoning a sinking ship. With at most 14 months to go until the next federal election, Mr. Trudeau would also lose a valuable asset in his stormy relationship with François Legault’s CAQ government.
Only two Canadian prime ministers, John A. Macdonald and Wilfrid Laurier, have managed to win four consecutive terms. And that was at the very beginning of the country, and then of the last century. Justin Trudeau’s gamble was a big one from the start. It keeps getting tougher. By burying his head in the sand, out of his own conviction of probity, the head of government will only seal his failure. And prove right the MPs who already accuse him of blindly leading them to their defeat.