Since the New Democratic Party broke away from its support and confidence agreement with the Liberal Party of Canada, the rest of the country has been rediscovering the existence of the Bloc Québécois. Since the survival of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s minority government had been ensured by the NDP-LPC alliance, the Bloc did not attract much attention. Although it was the third party in the House of Commons, the Quebec party was virtually absent from the minds of citizens of Rest of Canada.
That’s all changing since NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said he had “torn up” his deal with the Liberals.
In Ottawa, the Bloc Québécois has regained a powerful balance of power like never before since the minority governments of Paul Martin or Stephen Harper, between 2004 and 2011. And Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet says he intends to use it, while Justin Trudeau seems ready to do anything to avoid early elections that could put an end to his political reign. Mr. Trudeau is trying to buy time; Mr. Blanchet is trying to use it to make “gains for Quebec.”
This new political situation has caused cries of indignation in the rest of Canada. Outraged at the idea that a sovereignist party could trade its support for the Trudeau government for policies that are antithetical to the interests of the country as a whole, voices are being raised to call on the Liberals to reject any alliance of convenience with the Bloc. “The federal government does not have the mandate to negotiate with Quebec separatists at the expense of Alberta, the West and the rest of the country,” wrote Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on X this week. “If they go down that path, elections should be called immediately.” The C’s political columnistalgary heraldDon Braid, wrote that no elected official in Ottawa “is as hostile to the Alberta economy as Yves-François Blanchet.”
The outcry is not just an Alberta affair. An editorial in Toronto Sunformerly owned by Quebecor, accuses Mr. Trudeau of having traded the “socialists” for “separatists” by leaving the fate of his government in the hands of the Bloc Québécois. The Toronto tabloid does not, however, blame the Bloc members for wanting to wrest concessions from Mr. Trudeau. “The problem is that a weak Liberal government, in political disarray, obsessed with its survival, which clings to anything to avoid a federal election before next fall, is not going to govern in the best interests of Canada.”
The sudden interest in his party in the ROC makes Mr. Blanchet smile, who invites his Albertan detractors to create “a Western Bloc that will speak only for the West.” However, such a formation has already existed. And the simultaneous rise of the Reform Party and the Bloc, starting in the early 1990s, had allowed Jean Chrétien’s Liberals to win three majority governments in a row, giving rise, among other things, to the referendum clarity law followed by the decline in support for sovereignty in Quebec. As the English say: be careful what you wish for. (Be careful what you wish for!)
The Bloc’s list of demands on the Trudeau government includes an increase in the Old Age Security pension for Canadians aged 65 to 74 to the same level as that received by seniors aged 75 and over. The Liberals had increased the benefits by 10% in 2022, thus following through on a 2021 election promise. The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer had calculated the cost of this measure at more than $2.3 billion starting in the 2024-2025 fiscal year. But increasing the Old Age Security pension, already indexed to inflation, for those aged 65 to 74 would cost much more given that the proportion of Canadians in this age group is already larger than that of those aged 75 and over, and that it is increasing rapidly with the aging of the population.
The federal government plans to spend $80.6 billion on seniors’ benefits this year, by far its largest budget item. By comparison, Ottawa plans to transfer $52 billion to the provinces for health care.
Of course, the increase in the Old Age Security pension demanded by the Bloc would benefit all Canadians aged 65 to 74, not just Quebecers. This would make it easier for the Liberals to justify such a concession. But the bill would be steep, and such a policy would run counter to the attempts of all governments to convince Canadians to stay in the workforce longer.
As for the Bloc Québécois’ other demands—the transfer of full powers in immigration to Quebec, a withdrawal of the religious exception in the definition of hate speech, an end to subsidies to the oil industry—they have little chance of being granted by the Liberals, however desperate they may be.
The “gains” for Quebec that Mr. Blanchet hopes to make thanks to the new political situation in Ottawa may therefore be smaller than he lets on. But at least he will have revived the interest of the rest of Canada in his party.