Let’s stop underestimating Alexis Lafrenière

Many salon recruiters are like impatient stock traders: if their choice does not quickly yield dividends, they turn away.

The best example?

Alexis Lafrenière.

His vision of the game is remarkable. This is why he was selected first overall in the 2020 draft. Since then, the Quebec striker has improved his statistics four years in a row. It’s rare at the start of your career. In the current playoffs, despite his own goal Wednesday night, he is one of the best wingers in the NHL. However, it continues to be seen by too many fans as a disappointment.

It’s true that Alexis Lafrenière had humble beginnings in the NHL. No, he didn’t score four goals in his first match, like Auston Matthews. Or 76 goals in his rookie season, like Teemu Selanne. Instead, he experienced long periods of lethargy, at the age of 19, in a league that played its games behind closed doors. This was enough for many to label him as bust – of “fallen hope” – without regard to context.

What context?

Alexis Lafrenière is a unique case. He was not drafted by a low-ranking team, but by a club that was tossing between 15^e and the 18th^e overall ranking when the pandemic hit. Since at the time of the cessation of activities, the teams had not all played the same number of games, the NHL invited 24 clubs to the series. Those who lost in the first round were entitled to a lottery ticket. The Rangers won the draw, which allowed them to draft the Rimouski Océanic forward.

In New York, Alexis Lafrenière joined a mature team which was already banking on two efficient and well-paid left wingers, Artemi Panarin and Chris Kreider.

The Quebecer therefore found himself on the third trio for a long time. He spent his first three seasons there, an unusual situation for the first player drafted. It was only this season that he earned a position on the first two lines, on the right wing. His production exploded: 57 points.

You will tell me that 57 points is not huge. It’s true. Especially for a first choice. At the same age, Nick Suzuki, chosen at 13^e rank, had scored more points. Cole Caufield, taken at 15^e rank, has just made 65. Except that Suzuki and Caufield are two star players within a weak formation, without internal competition. They always play on the first quintet in numerical superiority.

Same thing for two attackers drafted shortly after Lafrenière, Tim Stützle and Lucas Raymond. These two gifted players have been on the first power play unit of the Ottawa Senators and the Detroit Red Wings since their arrival in the NHL. Lafrenière is still confined to the second wave of the Rangers. Or rather, on a wave. His unit only gets a few seconds of play per penalty, so he has only played 105 extra minutes this season.

For a player of his caliber, that’s not much.

That’s less than Alex Newhook.

That’s less than Josh Anderson.

That’s less than Brendan Gallagher.

In fact, that’s fewer than 266 other NHL players.

Difficult to reach the big offensive targets without quality playing time on the first wave of special teams. To give you an idea, Nick Suzuki finished the season with 31 points on the power play. Alexis Lafrenière? With only six points. It lets you guess how much room for improvement he has. Realistically, if Lafrenière had scored the average points of the Rangers’ first unit players (32), he would have finished the season with around… 85 points!

I repeat: if he doesn’t have his place, it’s not because he lacks skating, vision or talent. It’s because the Rangers have one of the best quintets in the NHL, and we don’t change a winning formula. At even strength, Lafrenière is in the top 40 NHL scorers.

Here is a little game to demonstrate its effectiveness. I isolated the even strength stats for the same six players as in the table above. Could you recognize them?

The A is Alexis Lafrenière. The B, Lucas Raymond. The C, Tim Stützle. D, E and F are Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky.

Among all players under the age of 25, no one has scored more goals at even strength this season than Alexis Lafrenière.

In series? Lafreniere leads the Rangers in goals and points at even strength. The trio he forms with Vincent Trocheck and Artemi Panarin is dominant. And his misfortune of having been recruited by an already well-off club is transforming into extraordinary luck: that of being able to make the difference within the first trio of a team aspiring to the Stanley Cup, at only 22 years old. . That too is rare.

Neither Connor McDavid, nor Nathan MacKinnon, nor Auston Matthews have had such a great opportunity so early in their careers. The last time a first draft pick made it to the semi-finals so young was Lafrenière’s idol, Patrick Kane, almost 15 years ago.

Earlier I compared the impatience of amateurs to that of stock speculators. My colleague Nicolas Bérubé, in his excellent newsletter on personal finances, often reminds us that in the stock market, it is good to keep a long-term horizon. Patience, he wrote recently, pays off. This is also true in a late-developing sport like hockey.

Four years after his draft selection, not only is Alexis Lafrenière not a disappointment. He’s a rising star.