Flashback to 1940. Britain didn’t see Hitler coming. Its population has been allergic to military spending for several years. His army is not ready. When the bombs begin to rain down on London, the cabinet, having not even planned a bunker, must take refuge in the basement of a government building from where it will manage the rest of the Second World War.
Posted at 5:00 a.m.
At the time, Canada played a crucial role in helping Britain resist the German onslaught, long before the United States entered the war. But today, it is clear that Canada is very ill-equipped to support Ukraine, which is being savagely bombarded by Vladimir Putin.
Even if we compare his bravery to that of the British leader Winston Churchill, the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, cannot count on our help very much.
Our army lacks everything. Troops, equipment, funding, political will…
Canada has long forgotten that old adage: if you want peace, prepare for war. Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, both conservatives and liberals have slashed military spending, more concerned with balancing their budgets than dealing with a danger that seemed gone forever.
Throughout the world, military spending has almost halved over the past 35 years (from 4.2% to 2.4% of GDP). But Canada is a dunce, at 1.4%, which is well below the level of 2% recommended by NATO.
However, for 15 years, we can no longer ignore the political, economic and diplomatic inclinations of Russia and China.
Hearing the Russian president brandish the threat of atomic weapons, one can no longer plead naivety. Seeing his troops shamelessly fire on a nuclear power plant, we must realize with horror that we have come a hair’s breadth from disaster.
Obviously, the situation has changed. Canada must take note of this. And act. Like Germany, which announced last Sunday that it will inject 100 billion euros into its defense and will increase its military spending from 1.4% to 2% of its GDP. This is a considerable political reversal for a country much more focused on deterrence than on conflict.
Of course, Germany’s reaction can be explained by its proximity to Ukraine.
But in Canada, we tend to forget that Russia is also our neighbour. Okay, nobody expects Russia to invade the North Pole.
But with global warming, more and more commercial ships will ply Arctic waters. And the Russians will go further and further in the exploration of marine natural resources.
Who will monitor all this activity?
Canada cannot afford it.
It has not even budgeted for upgrading the NORAD radar chain to detect missiles flying over the Arctic.
Decades of chronic underinvestment in our defense will end up being costly. Last year, for example, the Parliamentary Budget Officer estimated that the shipbuilding bill would be three times higher than expected, at $77 billion. Ah yes, and the delivery will be late…
Replacing our fighter jets, second-hand models purchased from Australia, could be even more expensive. And we haven’t talked about submarines yet…
But beyond the equipment problems, the Canadian army is also undermined by the shortage of manpower. About 10% of the authorized strength, which stands at 72,000 soldiers, is missing. It is not the sexual assault scandal that has been left to rot for years, for lack of leadership, that has encouraged recruitment.
It is time for the government to show greater political will in matters of national defence.
Above all, he must put aside the partisanship that we have seen too often in the past. Think back to 2015 when the Trudeau government trashed the Conservative plan to buy F-35s. And now, seven years later, he is very likely to announce shortly that he will buy… F-35s!
If we want to see the blows come, we must develop a strategic vision, which is not found in the plan tabled by the Liberals in 2017.
With limited budgets, it is utopian to develop an army that can do everything on its own, in a context where Canada will never go to war without its allies, anyway.
So, it is better to focus on certain key areas that would ideally allow the development of cutting-edge sectors in Canada (eg drones). And do it right.
If there is a lesson to be learned from the invasion of Ukraine, it is that we must review our military strategy if we do not want history to be written without us. If we don’t want our reputation to be tarnished with our allies.