A tight match after a sluggish campaign. The New Popular Ecological and Social Union (Nupes) is hot on the heels of the presidential majority, Together!, in the first round of the legislative elections, Sunday June 12, according to the Interior Ministry. If the projections in number of seats in the National Assembly do not allow the left alliance to win against the coalition of Emmanuel Macron, the latter is not guaranteed either to have an absolute majority.
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A record abstention
At the national level, abstention stood at 52.49% in the first round of the legislative elections, according to the Ministry of the Interior. This is a new record, five years after the 2017 elections which saw 51.3% of voters shun the ballot box.
The figure for this Sunday thus confirms a trend already largely outlined since the beginning of the Fifth Republic, in 1958, that of a growing abstention in the legislative elections. During the first round of the presidential election last April, 26.31% of voters had decided not to move.
La Nupes and the presidential majority neck and neck
The new union of the left inaugurated on the occasion of these legislative elections, the Nupes (New popular ecological and social union), comes neck and neck with the presidential coalition which had redistributed the cards in the hemicycle in 2017. The coalition, which brings together LFI, PCF, PS and EELV, and Ensemble!, which brings together LREM/Renaissance!, MoDem and Horizons, are almost evenly matched with 25.66% and 25.75% of the votes respectively, according to an Ipsos-Sopra Steria estimate.
For Jean-Luc Mélenchon, these results constitute a snub for the government. The presidential party is “beaten, defeated”he said during his speech.
Absolute majority far from certain for Renaissance!
Although to be taken with caution, the projections in headquarters are nevertheless favorable to the presidential majority. According to our estimates, Together! is in a position to obtain at the end of the second round between 255 and 295 seats, against between 150 and 190 seats for Nupes. However, it takes 289 deputies to obtain an absolute majority in the hemicycle.
Why such a difference in the projections in seats between the two tied parties? This is explained by the very way legislative elections work, which take place by majority vote in two rounds, and by the distribution of theelectorate of the left on the territory (less homogeneous than that of rebirth!). However, to win seats in the legislative elections, it is more efficient to obtain balanced results in most constituencies. “We achieved a historic score” thanks to the “common banner” de la Nupes, nevertheless welcomed the head of EELV Julien Bayou. “We thwarted the forecasts, the challenge now is to thwart the projections” second round, he added.
According to these projections, the left-wing coalition will however have a much larger number of seats than the parliamentary groups LFI, PS, PC and EELV had (about fifty deputies between them during the previous legislature). Faced with the weight that Nupes could gain in the National Assembly, the Prime Minister immediately reacted: “We cannot take the risk of instability”, said Elisabeth Borne.
The RN can believe in his group in the National Assembly
With 18.68% of the votes in the first round, according to our Ipsos-Sopra Steria estimate, the National Rally comes third and is almost guaranteed to be able to form a group in the National Assembly at the end of the second round: the projections estimate that the far-right party could obtain between 20 and 45 seats at the end of the second round. This is less than what the party had hoped for (several tenors of the RN had explained that they were aiming for more than a hundred deputies) but much more than in 2017 when, with just over 13% of the vote, the party had obtained eight deputies.
After garnering 41.45% of the votes in the second round of the presidential election, Marine Le Pen won 53.96% of the votes in the first round of legislative elections in the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais. However, it will have to participate in the second round, because it obtains only 22.53% of the registered (it takes 25%).
The Republican right resists, but retreats
After the slap in the first round of the presidential election, where the candidate Valérie Pécresse had obtained less than 5% of the votes, the right-wing bloc ranks in fourth position and collects 13.6% of the votes, according to the Ipsos-Sopra Steria estimate. In 2017, the right-wing bloc managed to gather 21.5% of the votes.
The projections made by Ipsos-Sopra Steria for the second round are counting on a group of between 50 and 80 deputies for Les Républicains, the Union of Democrats and Independents (UDI) and the candidates classified various right, versus 92 LR parliamentarians and 8 related during the previous legislature.
Cold shower on the Reconquest side!, Eric Zemmour eliminated
In the first round of the presidential election, the new far-right party won 7.07% of the vote. By totaling 4.24% of the vote on Sunday evening, Eric Zemmour’s party is not guaranteed to be represented in the National Assembly. As to A far-right polemicist, he was eliminated in the first round in the 4th constituency of Var. Stanislas Rigault, president of Generation Z, and Guillaume Peltier also failed to qualify.
Several ministers in the lead in the first round
If they fail, they will have to leave their ministry. Including the Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, 15 members of the government are in the running for these legislative elections. Leading in the 6th constituency of Calvados (with 34.32% of the vote, according to our estimates), the head of government will appear in the second round in a position of strength against her competitor from Nupes, Noé Gauchard (24.53% ). The Minister of Labour, Olivier Dussoptthe Minister of Health, Brigitte Bourguignonthe Secretary of State for the Sea, Justine Beninthe Minister of Agriculture, Marc Fesneauthe Minister of Solidarity, Damien Abad, the Minister Delegate, in charge of Foreign Trade and Attractiveness, Frank Riester and the Minister Delegate for Public Accounts, Gabriel Attalare also favorites for the second round.
The Minister for Ecological Transition and Territorial Cohesion, Amelie de Montchalincomes in second place in the sixth district of Essonne, but more than six points behind his opponent from Nupes, Jérôme Guedj.
For the former Minister of National Education, Jean-Michel Blanquer, it is on the other hand a failed parachuting. He was eliminated in the first round in the 4th constituency of Loiret.
While waiting for the second round, voting instructions (or not)
The Republic on the move will not give national instructions. She will speak “case by case” in the constituencies where candidates from the National Rally and Nupes will oppose each other.“It’s the Republican Front, against the extremes“, explained the presidential party, arguing that “some Nupes candidates are extreme: it will depend on the personality of Nupes who is qualified, especially if it is someone who has the values of the Republic”. “But we will not support any RN candidate”added LREM.
“Everyone will appreciate in his constituency what his duty is”, for his part declared the leader of Nupes, Jean-Luc Mélenchon. “We have no doubts about the intelligence of our people, nor any reservations about the decision they will ultimately make regarding the composition of the National Assembly.” he said, asking voters to “surge” at the ballot box. “To those with whom we clashed in the first round, to look at this second round, not only from the angle of the projects, not only from the angle of the labels, but from that of the general interest of the fatherland and of his people”he added.
Marine Le Pen also did not give voting instructions in the constituencies in which the National Rally does not appear in the second round. In the event of a duel between Nupes and the presidential majority, Marine Le Pen “urges voters not to choose between destroyers from above and destroyers from below.”