Q. Why Leopard 2 and not other models?
A. First, because there are many of them, around 2000, on European soil. Their delivery to Ukraine would be done quickly. Poland, the country most insistent that Germany agree, shares a long border with Ukraine and wants to send 14 of its approximately 240 tanks. In addition, Leopard 2s are reliable, robust and considered superior to Russian tanks. Several experts believe that the addition of a hundred tanks would allow the Ukrainian army to unblock the front where everything is stagnating. Ukraine claims 300.
Q. Is the personality of the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the origin of the hesitations?
A. Yes, believes Anthony Steinhoff, professor in the history department of the University of Quebec in Montreal and specialist in German history. “Since taking office, Mr. Scholz has shown a certain reserve with regard to political decisions, especially in situations where there is not a great consensus as to the path to follow,” he says. Moreover, in the present coalition uniting the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Liberals, about half of the members are pacifists. They have great resistance to acts that might encourage war. »
PHOTO FABIAN BIMMER, REUTERS ARCHIVES
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in front of a Leopard 2 tank during a speech while visiting a military base in Bergen in October 2022
Q. Could the ruling coalition break out on this issue?
A. “In principle, it’s always possible,” continues Anthony Steinhoff. But in reality, I don’t think so. Because there is agreement on the basic principles. German solidarity with Ukraine is not in question. The real question is how to express this solidarity and how to help Ukraine directly. »
Q. Some fear an escalation. Is it possible ?
A. “Without being in the secret of the gods, Mr. Scholtz is in a delicate position,” observes Marie Gervais-Vidricaire, retired diplomat and Canadian ambassador to Germany from 2013 to 2017. “He wants to be a reliable ally of the NATO and [montrer] that he is aware of the impact that these tanks could have on the ground. But I think he wonders about the scenarios that could arise next. President Putin has already said that he could not exclude the use of nuclear power if Russia, in its integrity, was threatened. What does this mean for Russians who have long said that Crimea is part of Russia? However, let us recall that the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, wishes to take back all the territories taken by the Russians since the conquest of Crimea in 2014.
Q. And what are the German people saying?
A. It is divided. “In a poll taken at the end of December/beginning of January, people were asked if they thought that Germany should strongly support Ukraine and continue its military support in the long term. Only 42% of Germans said yes very clearly, a small percentage were undecided or hesitant, and the rest were against, notes Marie Gervais-Vidricaire. While 82% of Poles who were asked the question are in favor of long-term support. Public opinion cannot be ignored. »
PHOTO LISI NIESNER, REUTERS ARCHIVES
A protester held a sign on Friday urging German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to “release the Leopards”, in reference to tanks requested by Ukraine.
Q. Do historical reasons also explain this hesitation?
A. Yes. German policy, especially in its relations with Russia, is tinged with the events of the Second World War. “Germans recognize the harm, damage and pain inflicted by the Nazis in Russia,” said Anthony Steinhoff. This had a great impact on the policy and positioning of German governments. This is also affirmed by Steven E. Sokol, president of the American Council on Germany, in an interview with New York Times. “German reluctance comes down to one word: history,” he says. Germans want to be seen as partners, not aggressors. They are very sensitive to the fact of delivering military equipment to regions of the world where German weapons have killed millions of people. »
With The New York Times, ForbesAgence France-Presse and Associated Press