Legislative | The French vote in a historic election

(Paris) The French voted massively on Sunday for the first round of historic legislative elections, which could pave the way for the far right to come to power in a week.

The participation rate was at record levels at midday in mainland France, at 25.90%, compared to 18.43% in the 2022 legislative elections at the same time, announced the Ministry of the Interior.

“This is the highest level since the 1981 legislative elections,” notes Mathieu Gallard, the research director of the Ipsos polling institute.

In the polling stations, many voters expressed their anxiety and excitement for these early elections called, to everyone’s surprise, by President Emmanuel Macron on June 9.

“I would like to find some peace of mind because, since the European elections, everything has taken on a worrying scale,” confides Roxane Lebrun, 40, in Bordeaux, in the southwest.

In the northern districts of Marseille, a large port on the Mediterranean, which has a large population of immigrant origin, Nabil Agueni, 40, went to vote even though he had not gone to the polls in the European elections: “As long as we have the choice, it’s better to go and vote,” he said.

The favorite RN

Many political figures went to vote in the morning.

President Emmanuel Macron did so in Le Touquet, in the northwest of France, allowing himself, as usual, a long crowd bath with selfies and hugs.

Far-right leader Marine Le Pen voted in Hénin-Beaumont, in the north.

French people can go to the polls until 6 p.m. (12 p.m. Eastern Time) or, in major cities, until 8 p.m. (2 p.m. Eastern Time), when the first results of this election likely to shake up the political landscape will emerge.

The first figures from the French West Indies have already been released: a candidate from the National Rally (RN, far right) will contest the second round of the legislative elections in Martinique, a first on this island, even if his score of less than 10% leaves little room for doubt. doubt about the outcome of the vote.

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal will make a statement at the headquarters of the presidential Renaissance party after 8 p.m. (2 p.m. Eastern), according to his entourage.

Incarnated by its president Jordan Bardella, 28 years old, the National Rally is credited with 34% to 37% of voting intentions, with the unprecedented prospect of a relative or absolute majority on July 7, the evening of the second round.

According to polls, to be taken with caution as uncertainty remains high, the RN is ahead of the left alliance of the New Popular Front (NFP), given between 27.5 and 29% and the presidential camp (center right), with 20 to 21%.

A risky bet

If Jordan Bardella becomes prime minister, it would be the first time a far-right government has led France since World War II, when an unelected collaborationist regime was established.

Otherwise, the risk of a blocked Assembly, without the possibility of an alliance between very polarized camps, is real, a scenario which would plunge France into the unknown.

An extremely risky bet, President Macron’s decision to dissolve the lower house of Parliament on June 9, barely having announced the failure of his troops in the European elections, had caused a political earthquake.

Despite its internal differences, the left managed to conclude a coalition agreement in the following days.

But the disagreements between the radical left group La France Insoumise (LFI) and its partners (socialists, ecologists, communists), particularly over the contested figure of the former LFI candidate in the presidential election Jean-Luc Mélenchon, have quickly resurfaced and parasitized their countryside.

During this time, nothing seemed to slow down the dynamics of the RN in the campaign on purchasing power and against immigration: neither the vagueness on the repeal of Mr. Macron’s pension reform, nor the emotion aroused by M Bardella’s desire to exclude dual nationals from “strategic jobs”, nor the sulphurous remarks of certain RN candidates.

Lessons from the first round could, however, be difficult to draw, particularly due to the large number of three-way races – three candidates qualified for the second round.

But also another unknown: the number of withdrawals between the two rounds, the practice of the “republican front” to obstruct the extreme right having weakened over the years.

“Greatest clarity”

It is among the “Macronists” that the pressure is the strongest, Emmanuel Macron having been elected head of state having resorted in 2017 then 2022), to the argument of the dam against the far right.

On Thursday he promised “the greatest clarity” on the attitude to follow but so far seemed to be leaning towards “neither RN nor LFI” which has been criticised even within his own camp.

On Monday at midday, he will bring together the Prime Minister and other members of the government at the Elysée presidential palace to establish a strategy against the extreme right.

These legislative elections are taking place after two years of relative majority in the Assembly, where the presidential camp had to seek allies text by text or resort to an article of the Constitution allowing the budgets and pension reform to be passed without a vote.

The triumph of the RN in the European elections – 31.4% of the vote against 14.6% for Mr. Macron’s camp – precipitated events and the president’s choices, to the point of exposing him to a possible “cohabitation” with Mr. Bardella.

In its recent history, France has experienced three periods of cohabitation between a head of state and a government of different persuasions, under the presidencies of François Mitterrand (1986-1988 and 1993-1995) and then Jacques Chirac (1997-2002).