The pro-democracy opposition parties come out ahead in the legislative elections in Thailand on Sunday, after the counting in more than 70% of the polling stations, announcing a stinging defeat for the military in power for almost a decade.
The ballot, the first since the massive protests of 2020 demanding an overhaul of the monarchy, laid bare the fractures of a kingdom, between young generations eager for change, and elites attached to the king and the army.
A partial count posted online by the electoral commission, based on the counting of the ballots in 73% of the polling stations, propels MoveForward (Go ahead), with 8.3 million votes.
Behind, the Pheu Thai movement of Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the daughter of former prime minister in exile Thaksin Shinawatra, won 6.8 million votes.
These figures confirm the trend seen in the polls, which predicted a heavy setback for outgoing Prime Minister Prayut Chan-O-Cha.
The ex-general, who came to power following a coup in 2014, won 2.7 million votes, under the banner of the United Thai Nation (UTN) party.
The leader of MoveForwardPita Limjaroenrat, estimated that his party was going to win 160 of the 500 seats at stake, a surprise result which “closes the door” to the hypothesis of a minority pro-army government in the National Assembly.
A government agreement with Pheu Thai “is on the table”, confirmed the young candidate, 42 years old.
But the complex electoral system offers the candidate close to the military a comfortable lead which could attenuate the extent of the expected alternation, or even open a new period of instability.
The opposition needs 376 seats out of the 500 in the National Assembly to counterbalance the influence of the 250 senators appointed by the army. While it is enough for the pro-army camp of 126 deputies to ensure a majority in the vote of the Prime Minister, chosen by the two chambers.
“Very positive energy”
This mechanism, deemed biased by human rights organizations, allowed Prayut Chan-O-Cha to stay in power in 2019, legitimizing his 2014 putsch.
The partial results, although favorable, do not go in the direction of the “electoral tidal wave” demanded for weeks by Pheu Thai, and should therefore open a period of negotiations to form a coalition.
And a scenario that would allow the military to stay in power also remains possible, in a kingdom accustomed to the interventions of the army and justice in the democratic process.
The official results validated by the electoral commission are not expected for several weeks.
Millions of Thais went to the polls amid sluggish economic growth and the rollback of fundamental freedoms.
Polling star Paetongtarn Shinawatra showed no signs of worry as he cast his ballot: “Today [dimanche] will be a good day. I feel a very positive energy,” the 36-year-old told reporters.
Generational clash
She went to vote in Bangkok with her family, with her sister and her mother. His father Thaksin, prime minister from 2001 to 2006, lives in exile to escape a conviction for corruption.
Thaksin, like Yingluck Shinawatra, Paetongtarn’s aunt, were ousted from power in a military coup in 2006 and 2014 respectively.
Sunday’s poll is the first nationwide to be held since massive pro-democracy protests in 2020, which called for a sweeping overhaul of the monarchy, a taboo subject in Thailand where King Maha Vajiralongkorn enjoys status of quasi-divinity.
These protests, which have diminished in intensity under the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic and the repression of the authorities, have nevertheless fueled the dynamism of MoveForward.
The party, self-proclaimed spokesperson for the new generation, defends a reform of the controversial article repressing lèse-majesté, hijacked to stifle any dissenting voice, according to its detractors.
“The younger generations now value their rights and they will go out to vote,” said its leader, telegenic Pita Limjaroenrat, 42, who studied at Harvard University in the United States.
But his positions, considered radical, fuel rumors of the party’s dissolution after the election, as was his ancestor. Future Forward (Ahead of the future) after its breakthrough in 2019.
For his part, the ex-general Prayut, now challenged even in his former coalition, presented himself as a bulwark against reformist ideas and praised his experience, a guarantee of stability.