(Johannesburg) South Africa’s ruling ANC is heading for a historic setback in the legislative elections, with partial results two-thirds into the count on Friday clearly predicting that the party will lose its absolute majority in Parliament after thirty years of uncontested rule.
At the start of the afternoon, the African National Congress (ANC) received less than 42% of the votes, according to the electoral commission (IEC), remaining below the crucial 50% mark with 66% of the votes counted. The party won 57% of the votes cast in the last legislative elections, in 2019.
The first opposition party (Democratic Alliance, DA, liberal center) currently has 22.6% of the votes. The very recent populist Umkhonto We Sizwe (MK) party of the sulphurous ex-president Jacob Zuma, made a breakthrough to 12%, while the left-wing radicals of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) stagnated at 9.5%.
Participation currently stands at 58.5%, down from 66% recorded in the previous election. Final results are not expected until Saturday at the earliest.
At the end of the election, the most contested in the history of democracy born in the country with the election of Nelson Mandela in 1994, 400 deputies will be elected. They will choose the next president.
Since the start of the count on Wednesday evening when the polling stations closed, the partial results have reflected the forecasts of experts and opinion surveys in recent weeks, which gave between 40% and 47% of voting intentions to the ANC.
The disillusionment of South Africa’s 62 million people, fueled by endemic unemployment, growing poverty and record crime, appears to have overcome stubborn loyalty to the party that liberated the country from racial segregation.
For many voters, the party which has long embodied the dream of a nation with access to education, housing and basic services, has not kept its promises.
Daily life is poisoned by recurring water and electricity cuts. And repeated corruption scandals involving senior party dignitaries have damaged confidence.
Zulu country in the hands of Zuma
The historic party, which currently holds 230 seats of deputies (57.5%), should however remain the largest political party in the National Assembly. Weakened, he will have to resolve to form alliances and hold negotiations on the composition of a coalition government.
Experts and observers still have difficulty predicting what the formula might be.
The ANC will have to choose between making concessions with the liberal demands of the DA, which has promised to “Save South Africa” through privatization and deregulation. Or if he risks a rapprochement with the EFF and its incendiary demands such as the redistribution of land to blacks and the nationalization of key economic sectors.
The party will also have to determine whether it is ready to make a pact with MK, led by former ANC stalwart Jacob Zuma. But the gap between President Cyril Ramaphosa and Jacob Zuma, long-time political enemies, will be difficult to bridge, experts anticipate.
PHOTOS ARCHIVES AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
Outgoing President Cyril Ramaphosa and former President Jacob Zuma
The MK, which takes its name from the former armed wing of the ANC during the fight against the white regime, is about to get its hands on the Zulu province (East), traditional stronghold of the ruling party and essential province bringing together more than 20% of the electorate. He is in the lead with more than 44% of the votes against less than 19% for the ANC.
The party seems to have benefited from the fervent popular support that Jacob Zuma, 82, still enjoys, former president (2009-2018) himself from the Zulu country, despite his exclusion from the ballot due to ineligibility.
A clear victory for the small party in the region would in any case deal another blow to Ramaphosa, 71, who is counting on a second term, but whose continuation could be compromised in the event of disastrous results from his party.