Legislative in France | First round of the duel between Macron and Mélenchon

(Paris) The French people of mainland France vote on Sunday in the first round of the legislative elections which pits the coalition supporting Emmanuel Macron, in search of a parliamentary majority to apply his presidential program, against the left revived behind Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Turnout stood at 18.43% at noon, a figure down 0.8 points from 2017 when it stood at 19.24%, and 2.5 points from the 2012 legislative elections in the same hour (21.06%).

It is also down sharply compared to the first round of the 2022 presidential election at the same time (25.48%), but much higher than that of the departmental and regional elections of 2021 (12.22%).

In Saint-Sulpice-la-Forêt (Ille-et-Vilaine), Arnaud Davy, 61, notes that there is “less enthusiasm than for the presidential election, people talk about it less”. He “votes in all elections”.

The dreaded massive abstention – undoubtedly beyond 50% of the more than 48 million voters – could arbitrate the match by proxy between the freshly re-elected head of state and Mr. Mélenchon, third man in the presidential election, now boss of the left, while on the far right, Marine Le Pen’s RN displays measured ambitions.

The left alliance Nupes (LFI, PCF, PS and EELV) is neck and neck in the voting intentions with Together!, macronist coalition of LREM / Renaissance, MoDem and Horizons.

But in the second round on Sunday June 19, the reserves of votes could be lacking for Nupes to seek victory, unless there is a strong mobilization of abstainers from the first round.

Abstention in the legislative elections has only increased since the 1993 election, rising from 31% that year to 51.3% in 2017. It primarily affects young people and the working classes. At noon, this Sunday, Seine-Saint-Denis is the department having voted the least (9.85%).

For Macron, the risk of a relative majority

At the exit of a supermarket in Pré-Saint-Gervais (Seine–Saint-Denis), Anissa, 38, not wishing to give her surname, said she had voted for the last time in 2002, during the duel between Jean -Marie Le Pen and Jacques Chirac.

“Afterwards, I was disappointed, so I feel that I have no time to waste on people who manipulate the population. In my family, we are four brothers and sisters, we don’t vote. It is only our parents for whom it is an act of citizenship. »

The latest polls published on Friday place Together! in the lead in number of deputies, but not necessarily with the absolute majority – 289 seats out of 577 – that the macronie held in the previous National Assembly elected in 2017.

If Mr. Macron only obtained a relative majority, he would be forced to compromise with the other parliamentary groups to have his laws approved.

If, in the least likely scenario, Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s Nupes won an absolute majority, Emmanuel Macron would be deprived of practically all his powers.

It is with this objective in mind that Mr. Mélenchon kept repeating that he wanted to make these legislative elections “a third round” which would allow him to be “elected Prime Minister”.

Mr. Macron has chosen to pose, as during the presidential election, as a bulwark against “the extremes”.

Pointing to the lack of credibility, according to him, of the Nupes on the economic level, he calls for a “strong and clear” majority in order to be able to implement his program.

Including Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne, 15 members of the government are in the running for the legislative elections and will have to leave the executive in the event of defeat, in accordance with an unwritten rule but already applied in 2017 by Mr. Macron.

In Guadeloupe where we voted on Saturday, the Secretary of State for the Sea Justine Benin (MoDem) is on a favorable ballot against the candidate Nupes Christian Baptiste. Participation, very low, is down compared to 2017, as in Martinique where it does not exceed 21.37%.

After Marine Le Pen garnered more than 40% of the votes in the second round of the presidential election, the National Rally is, according to the polls, outdistanced by Nupes and Together! for legislative purposes. However, he could obtain between 20 and 40 deputies, against eight elected in 2017, and thus form a parliamentary group for the first time since 1986.

The RN hopes for conquests

The RN, strong in PACA and in Hauts-de-France, hopes to have elected officials in new regions, such as the Grand Est, Occitanie, or even New Aquitaine.

In this camp, the former presidential candidate Éric Zemmour also nourishes, in the Var, the hope of being elected deputy. He could be the only one of Reconquest!, his party.

Finally, these legislative elections promise to be at very high risk for the traditional right of the Republicans (LR), a pillar for decades of French political life, but far from power since 2012, and whose candidate Valérie Pécresse obtained less than 5% of the vote. presidential vote.

Nearly 6,300 candidates are vying for the 577 seats, i.e. 20% less than in 2017, due in particular to the agreement on the left. Those who will not be elected on Sunday evening will have to, to access the second round of June 19, either arrive in the first two in their constituency, or obtain the votes of 12.5% ​​of registered voters.