The campaign for the Israeli legislative elections on 1er November is in full swing with a big question in the background: can former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, tried for corruption, return to power?
Back to June 2021. After intense negotiations behind the scenes, a unique coalition in the history of Israel, bringing together part of the right, center, left and for the first time an Arab party, gives birth to a government supposed to put an end to 15 years of reign of Benjamin Netanyahu, who blew his 73 candles this weekend.
The longest-lasting head of government in the history of the world’s only predominantly Jewish state is also in full trouble with the law over alleged corruption and embezzlement. His political future seems compromised, but “Bibi”, his nickname, clings to the title of leader of the opposition.
June 2022. The coalition is torn by internal tensions which cause the government to lose its majority in Parliament and push it to announce new elections, the fifth in three and a half years in Israel, a country strongly divided politically which has not happened these last last few years to have a stable government.
After the summer holidays, the three weeks of annual Jewish holidays when the country is in “pause” mode, the campaign for the legislative elections of 1er November is really starting to get active with parties trying to shake up an electorate that has hitherto been apathetic in the face of this new election, which raises major issues with, in particular, the rise of the far right against a backdrop of violence in Israel and the Territories Palestinians.
The “most extreme”
The latest polls credit Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud (right) in first place with 31 seats out of the 120 elected Knesset (Parliament), against 24 for Yesh Atid (“There is a future”) of centrist Prime Minister Yair Lapid, and 14 for Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich’s “religious Zionism” list (extreme right), a first. A dozen parties follow in the wake.
From the first minutes of his campaign, Benjamin Netanyahu affirms that he wants to bring together the 61 seats (threshold of the majority) to form a “right-wing government” by bringing together the voices of the ultra-Orthodox and far-right formations. Together, these formations flirt with the majority, according to the polls.
For this fifth ballot, “the turnout is about to decline as this election is perhaps the most critical because Netanyahu has associated himself with a racist party and this could be a disaster for Israeli democracy”, notes Gayil Talshir, professor of political science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. “This could result in the emergence of the most right-wing extremist government Israel has ever had. »
In the eyes of Benjamin Netanyahu, Mr. Lapid’s motley coalition is “a dangerous and catastrophic experience”. “Now is the time to tell him “khalas” (enough, in Arabic). […] That’s enough, khalas! “, he launched Sunday evening in a meeting.
Lapid, “the responsible adult”
If Mr. Netanyahu is trying to return to power, Mr. Lapid is trying to hang on to it. In recent months, the centrist leader has seen his party progress in the polls and has multiplied diplomatic initiatives by traveling to Berlin and especially Paris to meet his “friend” Emmanuel Macron there and discuss the Iranian nuclear program and a border agreement with Lebanon.
“Lapid chose to watch the election from above, from his PMO, leaving the others (candidates) to rush, sweat, get their hands dirty and make mistakes while he plays the role of responsible adult” , estimates the best-selling newspaper in Israel, the Yediot Aharonot. “This restraint allowed him to boost his support in the polls, but it does not help the anti-Bibi bloc. »
In the Israeli proportional system, the parties must obtain a minimum of 3.25% of the vote to have deputies in Parliament, hence the risk for certain parties hostile to Benjamin Netanyahu not to cross this threshold as is the case. for the Arab parties, which openly oppose it.
In 2019, they had come together under the same banner to establish themselves as the third political force in Israel, but this time they split into three lists with the risk for each of not electing deputies and thus indirectly favoring the return to power of Mr. Netanyahu.