What messages do these results send?
In the opinion of Laurie Beaudonnet, professor in the political science department of the University of Montreal and director of the Jean Monnet Center, these results show above all “the collapse of the presidential majority”.
Emmanuel Macron’s bet to dissolve the National Assembly to regain a majority and thus allow him to comfortably finish his five-year term “did not work.”
This opinion is shared by doctoral student in political science at the University of Montreal Julien Robin. According to him, Sunday’s results show that a “paradigm change” is hitting French political life hard.
“There, we see a navy blue wave in the vast majority of French constituencies,” says the man who specializes in particular in the evolution of parliamentary groups in the National Assembly over the last 15 years. “We are seeing the predictable rise of the RN [Rassemblement national] for 20 to 30 years and which is happening before our eyes.”
The gradual metamorphosis of French political life has accelerated over the past seven years with the arrival of Emmanuel Macron to power.
“ [Il] blew up the dikes between the left and the right, except that there, it strengthened the RN, adds Julien Robin. We see that he dominates the first round, but above all that he has established himself deep within the French electorate. He has an electoral base which no longer moves and which is loyal to him. »
What to expect for the second round?
For Julien Robin, the most plausible scenario would rule out the idea of a “large absolute majority” of the RN in the National Assembly, but would instead give it a comfortable majority, whether absolute or relative.
These elections are marked by a record number of constituencies in which three candidates qualified for the second round, otherwise called triangular. There were several hundred on Sunday evening compared to only 8 in 2022.
“Before, there was a multiplication of candidates, but now, coalitions were formed in the first round,” explains Julien Robin. “By doing this, we maximize our chances of qualifying for the second round, whereas before, coalitions were formed in the second round.”
Laurie Beaudonnet expects to see movement in these constituencies during the second round, particularly because of withdrawals and the fragmentation of the presidential camp. She maintains that many candidates still think it is possible to “block the far right.”
What would cohabitation mean for Emmanuel Macron?
The choice of prime minister inevitably falls to the president, but the rule is that he follows the color of the majority group in the National Assembly.
Even though his prime minister is from a different political family, Emmanuel Macron still retains certain powers. For example, he continues to represent France on the international stage and remains head of the armed forces.
“It is the Prime Minister who has executive power, so in this case, the president is guarantor of the institutions,” explains Laurie Beaudonnet. He could exercise a safeguarding role as in Italy, where the President of the Republic can have a speech of temperance in relation to reforms of the political system. »
Considering the lack of consensus around the dissolution of the National Assembly within his camp, President Macron has “started to lose a lot of his support”, says Mme Beaudonnet.
“He will most likely be very isolated after the [second tour]. He will continue to have prerogatives and certain roles that belong to him as head of state […]but it will be very complicated.”
However, the president remains the one who appoints the people who sit on the Constitutional Council. The latter ensures that the laws respect the French Constitution and repeals them if they do not. Emmanuel Macron must appoint these members in 2025 before the end of his mandate.
Will France be easily governed?
In the case of a relative majority of the RN, the party will have difficulty making alliances to pass its legislative proposals, because it has “no ideological base” with many parties in the National Assembly, explains Laurie Beaudonnet .
“The right and the centre have no interest in supporting the RN government because they have an interest in things not going well for it for the next three years,” explains Laurie Beaudonnet.
According to her, the aim here is to make the National Rally appear as “a party that is not capable of governing.”