Throughout history in France, even when it was called the National Front, voting for the National Rally (RN) has been associated with the working classes—workers and the unemployed, in particular. This is a little less true today, and this is one of the keys to understanding why the far right is on the verge of power as the second round of legislative elections approaches, scheduled for Sunday.
The RN is increasingly appealing to business leaders, qualified professionals and seniors with good pensions. In short, the most privileged sections of society. In the constituencies that overlap with the very bourgeois Aix-en-Provence, the party of Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen even came out on top in the first round of the legislative elections: something never seen before.
Aix-en-Provence is located less than an hour’s drive from Marseille. However, you would think that the two cities are not in the same country, they are so different. Calm and orderly, Aix has little in common with the chaotic Marseille, which is nonetheless charming. Here, there is no trash lying on the ground. In the streets, women walk around with their designer handbags and designer shoes. Men often wear a Lacoste polo shirt or a Ralph Lauren shirt.
The average income in this university town of about 150,000 people is considerably higher than that of France as a whole. And according to the latest census, 52% of Aix-en-Provence residents have a higher education degree, a rate nearly 20 points higher than the national average. Suffice to say that Aix-en-Provence symbolises this France that is doing well, the one that is more afraid of the end of the world than of the end of the month.
But on the ground, we also sense frustrations and resentments. “France has gone mad. The left, especially, has gone mad,” says Éliane Grech, getting carried away spontaneously, without developing her thoughts further.
For the first time in her life, this retired physiotherapist voted RN last Sunday. And she intends to do it again in the second round. Previously, she was a voter for the classic right—the Gaullist right, that of Chirac and Sarkozy. The Les Républicains party, which embodies it, is now in tatters. Its most right-wing fringe sealed an agreement with the RN for this campaign. Its moderate wing has been essentially absorbed by the centrist bloc of President Emmanuel Macron in recent years.
“The right no longer exists, so I have no choice but to join more extreme parties,” M.me Grech, who now votes for the same political party as her husband, Michel. This dentist by profession, also retired, went over to the far right a few years ago. When asked why, he prefers to refrain from any comment. In some circles, it is probably still taboo to openly say that one votes for the RN, the party that succeeded the National Front of the sulphurous Jean-Marie Le Pen.
Michel and Éliane Grech are not, however, isolated cases. According to a survey conducted by the firm Ipsos, 22% of executives and the most highly educated voted RN in the first round. This is much less than in other categories of the population — 57% of workers have set their sights on the far-right political party — but the fact remains that the RN has doubled its score among the most educated compared to the 2022 legislative elections.
A threat to the wallet?
This relative breakthrough is not unrelated to the fact that the National Rally has tried in recent years to equip itself with a more pragmatic economic program. A way of reassuring electorates that were still hostile to it, namely the better-off and retirees. Thus, the party is no longer in favor of France leaving the European Union and the eurozone. It has also nuanced some of its most expensive promises, such as returning the retirement age to 60.
In any case, the markets did not panic over the results of last Sunday’s first round. The CAC 40, the country’s main stock market index, fluctuated very little after it was announced that the RN had come out on top in the legislative elections for the first time in its history.
But for Mirella Martini, who works in the financial sector, these signals could be misleading. “The truth is that it would be an economic catastrophe if the RN obtains a majority and forms the government. Already, we see our investors choosing to go to Italy and Switzerland rather than here,” underlines the one who decided on this radiant summer day to ignore these gloomy forecasts by relaxing on a terrace in Aix-en-Provence.
The joint programme of the left-wing parties, grouped under the banner of the New Popular Front, worries her just as much – if not more – than that of the National Rally. The measures it contains would considerably increase the country’s debt, she believes. During the first round, Mirella Martini therefore voted for Ensemble!, Emmanuel Macron’s coalition, and she has difficulty understanding why the president provokes such hatred in the country.
A hated president
Because from a macroeconomic point of view, France has objectively already been doing worse. By remaining around 7%, the unemployment rate in France has reached a 15-year low under Emmanuel Macron. The inflation crisis has also been less pronounced than in other European countries. But the French seem determined to give the president a thrashing in these early legislative elections, which he himself triggered by dissolving the National Assembly the day after the European elections.
“He has a very good record. I don’t think that’s what explains his unpopularity. His problem is his personality,” says Bernard Dupuis, a retired nuclear engineer. He too sometimes loathes the “arrogance” of the head of state, but he continues to support his centrist coalition.
Because while the RN has certainly made a small breakthrough among the older and wealthier electorate during these legislative elections, this group still forms the basis of Macronism.
According to the Ipsos institute, about a third of voters who say they manage to put money aside voted for Ensemble! in the first round. This is also one of the only categories in which the presidential coalition was not outpaced by the RN, the New Popular Front or both.
This report was financed with the support of the Transat International Journalism Fund-
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