Posted at 6:00 a.m.
François Mitterrand must be turning in his grave.
After its lamentable score in the first round of the presidential election, the Socialist Party (PS) has just partially denied itself by joining a new left-wing coalition which is arousing as much enthusiasm as skepticism.
Formed a few days ago in anticipation of the legislative elections of June 12 and 19 in France, the New Popular Ecological and Social Union (NUPES) will bring together the Socialists, the Greens (EELV) and the Communist Party, under the rule of La France insoumise (FI), the radical left party led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Such an alliance still seemed impossible a month ago, as the differences between these formations are great.
But yesterday’s rivals put their differences aside, in the hope that this common front will allow them to win a majority of the 577 seats in the National Assembly and impose cohabitation on President Emmanuel Macron, with Mélenchon as prime minister.
The pros and the cons
The promoters of this coalition do not hesitate to speak of a “historic” moment for the French left.
The most romantic evoke the mythical Popular Front of 1936, or the Common Program of 1972 between the Socialists and the Communists.
The most pragmatic affirm that it meets the expectations of left-wing voters, who have wanted this rally since the beginning of the presidential campaign. We see it as a symbol of renewal for a more social and greener France.
The most strategic hail the skilful political coup of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is taking advantage of his solid performance in the first round of the presidential election (third position with 22% of the vote) to put the other left-wing parties at his heels.
But its detractors see it rather as a “marriage of convenience” doomed to failure, believing that the compromises made by each and every one to make this coalition exist will sooner or later end up breaking up.
“Historically, unions on the left have never been loves of daisies and care bears. And it will be even less so this time around,” predicts political scientist Jean Petaux, perplexed.
According to him, this so-called “popular union” is only an “electoral agreement of constituencies”, where the basic questions have unfortunately been pushed under the carpet by opportunism and because of the urgency.
[Les membres de la coalition] do not have a programmatic agreement on questions as essential as secularism, Europe, NATO, international relations, ecological planning or the nuclear question. There is not the beginning of a collective reflection on this.
Jean Petaux, French political scientist
“They do not have the same ideas on everything and no doubt this will come out during future reforms of the Macron five-year term,” adds Caroline Vigoureux, political journalist at Opinion.
Nothing says, moreover, that this gamble will result in a victory in the legislative elections. The projections for the moment only give between 120 and 160 seats in the NUPES, still far from the 289 required for a majority in the Assembly.
“The chances of obtaining an absolute majority are still extremely low, confirms Caroline Vigoureux. On the other hand, they have more serious chances of becoming the first opposition group in the Assembly, which would give them a considerable power of nuisance. »
For the moment, the polls predict that the macronist coalition Together, made up of the parties MoDem, Horizons and Renaissance (new name of La République en Marche), would win between 310 and 350 seats at the end of the ballot, the National Rally between 30 and 50, and the Les Républicains party between 50 and 80.
Irreversible
It remains to be seen in what state the Socialist Party, a historic formation which led France alternately with the right for 30 years before Macron’s election in 2017, will emerge from this new zone of turbulence.
You should know that the formation, very weakened by its historically low score (1.5% of the vote) in the first round of the presidential election, has just conceded the majority of the constituencies to La France insoumise, retaining only 70 out of 577, a scenario that would have been thought unthinkable five years ago.
For some, this agreement signifies neither more nor less the end of the Socialist Party in its current form, bringing to light the fault lines which announce a difficult tomorrow.
On the one hand, there are those who see it as a lifeline for a beleaguered training.
On the other, those who denounce a denial of socialist software, like ex-president François Hollande and his former prime ministers Jean-Marc Ayrault and Bernard Cazeneuve, the latter having even resigned from the party this week in denouncing a “tinkering” and a “form of resignation”.
Prudent, Caroline Vigoureux hesitates to speak of an announced death. But it is clear, according to her, that the sealed agreement will leave “irreversible traces” on a PS which “will not come out unscathed”.
Jean Petaux is more fatalistic and sees in this agreement “a form of slow-acting poison” for the Socialist Party. Unless its local and territorial anchorage (mayors, municipal councillors, departmental) prevents it from disappearing pure and simple.
“It is this establishment that will allow it not to completely sink, he concludes. But I think that in the long term, the Socialist Party of François Mitterrand is dead. He will disappear in his entity, as he disappeared in Italy. It’s like that. These are things that happen… ”
With Agence France-Presse