Legislative elections in France | A slap in the face for Macron in the face of the risk of an ungovernable France

(Paris) “It will take a lot of imagination” to govern: France is heading into the unknown after legislative elections resembling an earthquake on Sunday, with the Macron camp losing an absolute majority, the strong breakthrough of the left united and the historic score of the National Rally.

These results of the second round, unprecedented under the Fifth Republic, clearly raise the question of Emmanuel Macron’s ability to be able to govern and have the promised reforms passed, in particular that of pensions.

They open a delicate period of negotiations at all levels to seal alliances, reshuffle the government and negotiate positions of responsibility in the new Assembly.

Will he have to forge alliances with LR and the UDI, which have lost weight but won 64 seats? Remained silent on Sunday evening, Emmanuel Macron, who had urged the French to give him “a strong and clear majority”, finds himself weakened only two months after his re-election against Marine Le Pen.

He sees the RN, designated as the enemy N.1, disembarking massively and against all odds at the Palais-Bourbon with 89 seats, according to a complete count by AFP.

“We will work from tomorrow to build a majority of action, there is no alternative”, assured Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne, herself elected from just a short time in Calvados, affirming that this “unprecedented situation constitutes a risk for our country.

Symbols of the slap received, the defeats of the leaders of the macronie in the Assembly, two intimates of Mr. Macron: President Richard Ferrand beaten in his stronghold of Finistère and the boss of the LREM deputies Christophe Castaner in the Alpes-de -Haute-Provence.

Also defeated, three ministers – Amélie de Montchalin (Ecological Transition), Brigitte Bourguignon (Health) and Justine Benin (Sea) – will have to leave the government.

“It’s far from what we hoped for,” admitted the Minister of Public Accounts Gabriel Attal, who was however able to be satisfied with the victories over the wire of two ministers in Paris, Stanislas Guerini and Clément Beaune.

Majority abstention

Unsurprisingly, this election, on 4^e in two months after the presidential election, was shunned by the French while part of the country suffered a heat wave unprecedented in its precocity.

The abstention rate, of 53.79%, is up by more than one point compared to the first round (52.49%) but did not reach the record of the second round of 2017 (57.36% ).

The presidential coalition Together! (LREM, MoDem, Agir and Horizons) obtained 245 seats, according to a complete count by AFP, far from the absolute majority of 289 deputies out of 577.

It is now caught between two powerful groups that have clearly stated their opposition.

The battle promises to be tough against the united left (LFI, PS, EELV and PCF), which becomes the main opposition force with 137 deputies.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon welcomed the “total rout” of the presidential party by announcing that the Nupes was going to “put the best” of itself “into the parliamentary fight”.

On the offensive, the deputy LFI Eric Coquerel estimated that M^me Borne could no longer “continue to be prime minister” and announced that the opposition would table “a motion of censure” against his government on July 5.

The Nupes achieved the grand slam in Seine-Saint-Denis (12 deputies out of 12) and welcomed the election of three personalities: the housekeeper and trade unionist Rachel Kéké, the TV columnist Raquel Garrido and the ex-journalist Aymeric Because we.

RN “Tsunami”

Together ! will also have to deal with a clearly reinforced National Rally which, with 89 seats according to the AFP count, is the big surprise of this second round. A “tsunami”, even welcomed the interim president of RN Jordan Bardella, whose party had only eight elected in 2017.

Consequently, the RN will be able to easily form a parliamentary group, which it had only succeeded once, from 1986 to 1988, during the time of the National Front of Jean-Marie Le Pen, thanks to the proportional system.

“We will embody a firm opposition, without collusion, responsible”, announced Marine Le Pen, re-elected in Pas-de-Calais.

LR in central position

The Republicans, who represented the second force in the outgoing Assembly, obtained 64 deputies with their allies from the UDI and the Centrists, an almost unexpected figure given their pitiful score in the presidential election. Their position will be central in the Assembly since the Macron camp will need votes to reach an absolute majority.

The LR mayor of Meaux Jean-François Copé thus called on Sunday for a “government pact” with Emmanuel Macron, believing that “it is up to the Republican right to save the country”. But Christian Jacob, its president, assured that his party would remain “in opposition” and Eric Ciotti hinted that he would not be “the spare wheel of a failed Macronism.

It will therefore take “a lot of imagination” to act in this “unprecedented situation”, admitted the Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire, considering that, despite everything, France was not ungovernable.

For Emmanuel Macron, “this five-year term will be a five-year period of negotiations, of parliamentary compromises. It is no longer Jupiter who will govern, but a president struggling with a lack of majority in the Assembly, “provides constitutional law professor Dominique Rousseau.

The next few days will be hectic for the head of state, who will be caught up in a tunnel of international obligations (European Council, G7, NATO summit) and will have to maneuver on the home front with a reshuffle of his government.