Nearly 39 million Colombians are expected at the polls this Sunday to renew the two chambers of Parliament and designate the candidates who will compete on May 29 in the presidential election, where the left, for the first time in the history of the country, leaves favourite.
Voters renew the 296 members of the Senate and the Lower House for four years. The outgoing parliament is controlled by a right in power that is out of breath and whose image has been considerably tarnished by corruption cases.
In a country where the violence of armed groups has increased alarmingly in recent years, the conservative government of President Ivan Duque has assured that it has put in place “complete guarantees” for the smooth running of the electoral process.
“Strategic areas”
Nearly 241,000 police and military were mobilized. This includes 33,000 soldiers deployed in “strategic areas” particularly affected by the prevailing political insecurity, in Catacumbo and Arauca, bordering Venezuela, as well as in Cauca and Narino (in the south-west of the country), according to the Ministry of Defence.
These men “will be directly present in urban centers, rural areas, roads and, in particular, in polling stations. »
As Colombia emerged overwhelmed by the economic ravages of the pandemic and hurt by the crackdown on massive spring 2021 protests against the government, analysts predict a sanction vote against Mr. Duque’s incumbent government.
The right-wing Democratic Center party “will most likely cease to be the leading political force in the country,” predicts Alejo Vargas, political scientist at the National University of Colombia.
A wide range of social movements, notably from the popular protest of 2021, will also be able to measure their strength against the traditional parties, towards which many Colombians are tired.
New to these legislative elections, the victims of the conflict with the former Marxist guerrillas of the FARC, which laid down their arms thanks to the 2016 peace agreement, will have their own representatives in Parliament.
Sixteen seats are specially reserved for them for the next two legislatures in 167 municipalities, where the resurgence of violence, however, raises fears for the transparency of the ballot and fuels suspicions of possible corruption.
three rounds
On Sunday, voters will also have the opportunity to take part in the primaries of the main parties to choose their respective presidential candidate on May 29, in which the outgoing head of state cannot stand again.
In this original system, they will have the possibility of nominating the candidate of one of the three centre-right coalitions (Team Colombia), centre-left (Coalition Centre-espoir) or left (Historical Pact).
The designation of left-wing candidate Gustavo Petro, a guerrilla fighter converted to social-democratic “progressivism”, is beyond doubt. According to all the polls, Mr. Petro, 61, is currently the favorite against the divided conservative camp, undermined by the unpopularity of the Duque government and the wear and tear of its old champion, ex-president Alvaro Uribe, entangled in legal disputes.
Candidate in 2018, Gustavo Petro had lost in the second round against Mr. Duque. His accession to power would constitute a political earthquake in Colombia, historically always led by the conservative right.
Former Medellin mayor Federico Gutierrez is well positioned to win the centre-right nomination, while on the centre-left, former governor of the powerful department of Antoquia Sergio Fajardo is the favourite.
Seven other candidates are already registered for the presidential election, including the right-wing Oscar Zuluaga, the independent Rodolfo Hernandez, and the former Franco-Colombian hostage Ingrid Betancourt, credited with barely 3% of voting intentions. .
For the political analysis site The Silla Vacia“the consultations for the presidential election have monopolized almost all the attention”, eclipsing the legislative debates, for which no major political figure is in the running.
“The main subject of the campaign so far has been Mr. Petro,” observes the site. “At the center of attention, he succeeded like no other in talking to people and the media, and focused the debate around his proposals. »
And “for the first time in twenty years”, the historic leader of the right Alvaro Uribe “is not in the limelight, his speech has no echo, his image is at rock bottom, and his Oscar candidate Zuluaga has no visibility. »