The first round of the French legislative elections will have proven the polls right. The far-right National Rally (RN) and its allies are in the lead with 33.5% of the vote. It is followed by the left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front (NFP) with 28.1% of the vote.
(French time), the first estimates from the IPSOS Talan institute place the presidential party in third place with only 20.7% of the votes. The results of the second round, which will be revealed on July 7, will decide how France will be run and whether the President of the French Republic, Emmanuel Macron, will have to deal with a Prime Minister from another political camp.
In Montreal, NFP candidate Oussama Laraichi won more than 56% of the vote ahead of outgoing MP and member of the presidential majority, Roland Lescure, who won 22.5% of the vote. Far-right candidate Jennifer Adam was far behind with nearly 10% of the vote.
The overall turnout for this first round is estimated at 65.7%, the highest since 1997, compared to 47.5% of French people who went to vote in the last legislative elections in 2022.
Voiceless French people
It is 2 p.m. this Sunday on Mont-Royal Avenue when Maeline Alvarez, a 24-year-old French woman, learns the results of the first round.
” Whore ! », Exclaims with terror the young woman who has lived here for a year thanks to a travel-work permit (PVT).
“I am disappointed, because I thought there would be more mobilization from the left,” she said. This means that there is still a lot of racism [en France] because I think people vote out of racism and not for programs [des partis]. »
According to her, many people who voted for the presidential camp in the past are now turning to the extreme right. She even admits to knowing many people who in the past voted left and who now give their vote to the RN.
She still has one year left to spend here thanks to her visa, but Maeline Alvarez is now asking questions about a possible return to her country.
“If there is ever an RN prime minister, it doesn’t make you want to go back, because we know that our conditions will gradually deteriorate,” she says. “There is a feeling of fear, because you tell yourself that you live in a country where people are fascists.”
“Hate has made its place”
Sitting not far away on a terrace on the famous avenue du Plateau-Mont-Royal, Adeline Conesa, a 38-year-old Franco-Canadian, is also just learning the results of the first round. She says she is not surprised considering the rise of the RN in her country of origin.
There are many people who vote for the RN, but who do not say so. Hate has made its little place by making itself more accessible by making people believe that they are a party like the others. I left the country because of the mentality that is changing and which is very closed.
Adeline Conesa, 38-year-old French-Canadian
She explains how her grandmother herself was the victim of racism when she left Spain to immigrate to France.
“She was getting stones thrown at her and told to go home to Spain,” explains Adeline Conesa. “Racism against Italians and Spaniards existed, but it seems that each generation changes its target.”
“Even if the RN wins, the French must continue to have an open mind and not trust their word and not advocate hatred,” she adds.
A “paradigm shift” in French politics
Several French political parties reacted quickly after the results in order to anticipate the second round. Several candidates are already giving their instructions to block the far right and limit its rise.
“We are changing the paradigm tonight in French political life, because we are seeing a navy blue wave in the vast majority of French constituencies,” explains Julien Robin, a doctoral student in political science at the University of Montreal. “We are seeing the predictable rise of the RN for 20 to 30 years, which is unfolding before our eyes.”
For this specialist, whose thesis focuses on the evolution of parliamentary groups in the French National Assembly over the last 15 years, the scenarios for the second round are rather limited.
“We could already expect a good RN majority in the Assembly [nationale], whether it is a relative majority or an absolute majority which will not be large, he said. The second scenario is to see the Republican arc calcify during the week with withdrawals and withdrawals in the case of triangulars and therefore a limitation of the progress of the RN in the second round. »
Julien Robin does not expect a majority for the left, which is stagnating around its usual results. The French will vote again next week, while a cohabitation between the Macronist camp and another party seems inevitable.