According to a Léger-TVA Nouvelles poll, the foreseeable abandonment of the highway version of the 3rd Québec-Lévis link, the CAQ’s flagship promise, is making it lose its feathers. Particularly in the greater Quebec region.
• Read also – The saga of the 3rd link leaves traces: the worst CAQ survey in 4 years
For Prime Minister François Legault, this is a first warning shot. For now, however, the damage is limited.
Across Quebec, at 36% of voting intentions, the CAQ is down 4 points. In the Quebec City region, at 26%, the CAQ drops by 14 points. The broken promise of the 3rd link hurts him. Very bad.
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s Parti Québécois, which has been in second place in Quebec for several months now, is the lucky beneficiary.
Not invincible
In the greater Quebec City region, for the first time in ten years, the PQ dominates. Only the next polls will tell, however, whether or not this first slide by the CAQ heralds a new trend.
Friday, I wrote that the governments renewed with a 2nd mandate stronger than the first often succumb to a risky feeling of invincibility. Risky because it makes them reckless.
This poll comes to tell the Legault government that it is not invincible. That said, the CAQ still enjoys some major political advantages.
Major benefits
1) She continues to top the polls.
2) The next election is not until 2026.
3) It still benefits from an opposition divided into four parties. That’s a solid advantage. And this, as long as one of the opposition parties does not stand out more clearly as a possible alternative to the CAQ.
4) The popularity of François Legault persists.
5) If the CAQ succeeds in its two major reforms – health and education – its electorate will remain loyal to it. But, if she fails, or if the labels “muddled” and “unreliable” end up sticking to her skin, she could see even more former PQ voters who went to the CAQ be tempted to return to the fold.
On Friday, I will come back to the PSPP “effect” in more detail.