Prime Minister François Legault was unaware of the existence of a study commissioned by his government indicating that it will take 137 TWh, rather than 100 TWh as he said in his opening speech this week, to eliminate all gas at greenhouse effect by 2050.
In Mr. Legault’s office, the press secretary Ewan Sauves indicated that the Prime Minister did not read the document. Mr. Sauves was unable to specify whether this report was sent to him by the Ministry of the Environment and the Fight against Climate Change (MELCCC), which nevertheless made it public in 2021.
In his speech to the National Assembly on Wednesday, Mr. Legault said that a debate will be necessary to determine how Hydro-Québec’s new supply needs, which he puts at 100 TWh, will be met. The means available are wind and solar energy or the construction of new hydroelectric power stations.
“We said it, we calculated, it will take the equivalent of 100 TWh of electricity by 2050 to electrify the entire economy of Quebec, 100 TWh more than the 200 TWh we already have at Hydro-Quebec,” said Mr. Legault on Wednesday.
Mr. Sauves explained Thursday that this figure is taken from the strategic plan of the state company, which considers it a minimum.
According to the Hydro-Quebec document, “more than 100 additional TWh of clean electricity will be required for Quebec to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050”.
Immense needs
The Dunsky report, commissioned by the MELCCC, specifies however that these needs could go up to 137 TWh. By way of comparison, the current annual production of the wind power sector in Quebec is around 11 TWh and around 8 TWh for the last La Romaine hydroelectric project, the document indicates.
Mr. Sauves said that these scenarios and models all show that Quebec will have huge energy needs in the coming years.
“We are relying on the expertise of Sophie Brochu, as well as the teams from Hydro-Québec and the Ministry of Energy,” he replied to the To have toreferring in particular to the president and chief executive officer of the state-owned company.
Hydro-Quebec says there will be a reassessment of energy needs as the potential of decarbonization technologies materializes.
“We must keep in mind that the demand for electricity will be influenced by several factors over which Hydro-Québec has no control,” said spokesperson Maxence Huard-Lefebvre.
Environmental consultancy Dunsky, which prepared the study, maintains that energy needs could exceed 137 TWh.
“The step is incredibly high and the risk of not getting there is very great,” said its president and CEO, Philippe Dunsky. You have to do everything you can to eliminate waste. »
Just as Mr. Legault explained, Mr. Dunsky believes that the government will have to ask serious questions about how the energy produced by Hydro-Québec, which will need new supplies as early as 2027, will be used.
“I’m not saying that exporting isn’t a good thing, but we can’t do everything, we’ll have to choose,” he said.
Holder of the Chair of Energy Sector Management at HEC Montréal, Pierre-Olivier Pineau believes that it is still difficult to specify the quantities of energy to be supplied. “The government took over the Hydro-Quebec figure because they didn’t think any further, it’s a big figure that means things,” he said.
Mr. Pineau believes that choices will have to be made that will reduce energy consumption in transportation in particular, but also in the building sector. “We underestimate the needs with 100 TWh if we believe that there will be no energy efficiency and sobriety effort, he said. And we are talking about major efforts. »
According to Mr. Pineau, it will take more than the 8 TWh of energy efficiency measures put forward by Mr. Legault to stem the demand for additional energy.