Unsurprisingly, the coalition between Renaissance, MoDem and Horizons should lose its relative majority in the Assembly at the end of the second round, three weeks after the thunderclap of dissolution.
The outcome was hardly in doubt. When Emmanuel Macron spoke on Sunday, June 9, to announce the dissolution of the National Assembly after his camp’s defeat in the European elections, the head of state’s relative majority was hanging by a thread. This thread finally gave way during the first round of the legislative elections on Sunday, June 30, with a very clear decline of the presidential coalition.
According to the Ipsos-Talan estimate for France Télévisions, Radio France, France 24, RFI and LCP, the alliance of Renaissance, MoDem and Horizons only won 21% of the votes at the national level and can theoretically hope to keep between 70 and 100 seats at the end of the second round (according to seat projections to be taken with caution), far, very far, from the 250 seats it has had since 2022.
For the outgoing deputies and the center-right candidates, everything started in a hurry, on the evening of June 9. “There is a lot of stress, they are looking at the results of the European elections, but the legislative elections are not the same thing. It’s a big blur”whispered a majority leader in the middle of the campaign.
In order to limit the damage, several figures from the presidential camp, such as Bruno Le Maire or Edouard Philippe, have decided to distance themselves from Emmanuel Macron and his brutal decision to dissolve the Assembly. Others simply omitted to refer to the president and the majority, considered too negative, in their electoral propaganda.
At the same time, the head of state spoke several times, during a long press conference at the start of the campaign, then during field trips or media appearances. He gradually hardened his electoral arguments against “the extremes”without distinction or hierarchy, whose victory would lead, according to the head of state, to the “civil war”.
In the first round of these legislative elections, the presidential coalition still did better than in the European elections, when it only received 14.6%. “There was a surge in participation. Perhaps the presidential dramatization had a small effect on an electorate who had taken refuge in abstention in the European elections”analyzes political scientist Olivier Rouquan, who qualifies this slight rebound.
“As in the European elections, we are observing a sanction vote against Emmanuel Macron, because he has terribly personalized the exercise of power.”
Olivier Rouquan, political scientistat franceinfo
If the presidential coalition has limited the damage in some of its strongholds since 2017, such as Yvelines or Hauts-de-Seine, some of its personalities have not resisted the decline observed everywhere else. Within the government, for example, the ministers Fadila Khattabi (Côte-d’Or), Dominique Faure (Haute-Garonne) or Sabrina Agresti-Roubache (Bouches-du-Rhône) came third, while Guillaume Kasbarian (Eure- et-Loir), Agnès Pannier-Runacher (Pas-de-Calais) or Frédéric Valletoux (Seine-et-Marne) are on waivers for the second round, behind the RN.
For the presidential camp, a priority question now arises: in the event of third place and possible qualification for the second round, should we withdraw to limit the risk that the National Rally and its allies could have an absolute majority on July 7? The number of speeches increased on Sunday evening, each time with nuances that prevent the center from speaking clearly with one voice.
On the one hand, there are those who practice “neither-nor” against the RN and La France insoumise. The President of the National Assembly, Yaël Braun-Pivet, called for a vote for the candidate “the most republican” in the second round of legislative elections, with the exclusion of one “certain number of candidates” of the left alliance.
On the other hand, some preferred to target the extreme right without mentioning the candidates of the New Popular Front. Emmanuel Macron, for his part, called for a “large gathering clearly Democrat and Republican for the second round” against the National Rally, without publicly mentioning the left-wing alliance.
“The President of the Republic looks at the constituencies on a case-by-case basis.”
A close friend of the head of stateto France Televisions
“Not one vote should go to the National Rally” in the second round, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said. “We will withdraw in favor of candidates who are able to beat the RN and with whom we share the essential: the values of the Republic”for its part explained the Renaissance party in a press release.
Finally, several figures from Macron’s party have clearly included La France Insoumise in the republican front against the RN. “I am convinced that despite the unsavoury personalities who haunt La France Insoumise, first and foremost the first among them [Jean-Luc Mélenchon]they will not be in power”explained Roland Lescure, Minister of Industry, on the social network
The latter therefore called for “block the extreme right without qualms by voting for the best-placed alternative candidate”. “We must vote for the candidate who faces an RN candidate in the second round, whoever they are”added Clément Beaune, former Minister of Transport, one of the rare Macronists not to have placed La France insoumise and the RN on an equal footing.
Beyond its attitude in the constituencies where it finds itself far behind the contenders for victory, the presidential coalition will try to retain the largest possible contingent of deputies in the new National Assembly, with cards reshuffled between its different components: Horizons will no longer have a parliamentary group (at least 15 deputies), while the MoDem is not sure of keeping its own, which could weaken its leaders with a view to the succession of Emmanuel Macron for 2027.
For its part, the Renaissance group would continue to shrink significantly: the presidential party had already gone from 267 deputies before the 2022 legislative elections to 170 until the dissolution. At the end of the second round, it should be satisfied with 53 to 71 seats, according to Ipsos-Talan projections. These three groups could thus find themselves in the opposition if the RN and its allies have a majority and are entrusted with the task of forming a government. The legislative elections, much more than the European elections, would then represent a fatal blow to Macronism.