Marko* has been preparing for months to leave Russia to come and live in Canada. Departure is at hand. His plane ticket says September 25. But since Wednesday, he fears it is too late.
Posted at 5:00 a.m.
“I will ask all my friends to pray for me when I am at passport control,” he wrote to me on a secure communication platform where we chat regularly. Of Russia, of the war, of the future of her children.
I dare not give you too many details about Marko*, to whom I have given a fictitious first name, for fear of harming his journey, but I have known the man and his composure for a very long time. He had never written to me out of panic.
This panic seems to be shared by a good part of the Russian population since Vladimir Putin’s television announcement on Wednesday morning. The boss of the Kremlin, who has been claiming since last February that his country is not at war, announced a “partial mobilization” of reservists from the Russian armed forces for his “special military operation” in Ukraine. A mobilization that could affect 300,000 people.
It didn’t take much to trigger a rescue. The telecast of the president’s address had not ended when men stormed the internet to try to find a way out: a plane ticket to Turkey, Armenia or Georgia, countries where they can go without applying for a visa. The tickets flew at exorbitant prices. The flights are packed for the next week.
If some started on their keyboard, others took to the streets. Despite the strict rules surrounding comments critical of the army and of Russia’s aims in Ukraine. By Wednesday evening, at least 1,300 people had been arrested for taking part in demonstrations against the mobilization.
Vladimir Putin and his Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu, may say that the mobilization is only for reservists who have combat experience or who have specialties that would be useful in Ukraine, the wording of the decree that accompanies the he announcement is so vague that it makes many Russians fear a very large mobilization. Large-scale conscription.
Especially since the minister himself admits that he can already recruit from a pool of 25 million people.
Who are these 25 million Russians? All men under 50 (or even 60, in the case of officers) who have done their compulsory one-year military service, so not necessarily enthusiastic soldiers who would set off for the front line whistling.
And the door could close quickly on the conscripts. The Russian government has indicated that reservists who receive a summons from the army will not have the right to leave the country or to defect. Under penalty of imprisonment.
Nothing to appease the desires of immediate escape of thousands of men of fighting age.
“More broadly, the call for partial mobilization demonstrates that the face of war is changing in Russia. The Kremlin wanted a quick, decisive victory, but today Russia can no longer speak of a short-term victory, says Guillaume Sauvé, expert on Russia and visiting researcher at the Center for International Studies and Research of the ‘Montreal university. Mobilization is confirmation that the country is embarking on a long-term conflict. »
And in this long-running conflict, Moscow does not have the big end of the stick these days. Over the past two weeks, Ukrainian forces have succeeded in regaining control of towns and villages in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions. Russia’s allies, including mighty China, have reservations about the war. Inside the country, voices rise among the hawks as among the doves to criticize the role of Russia in the current war.
By announcing a partial mobilization, Vladimir Putin has just awakened part of the population who had spent a rather normal summer, ignoring the conflict raging in the neighboring country. War now threatens to knock directly on their doorstep.
And to make sure he rings the bells for all his people, the autocratic leader has once again allowed the threat of the use of nuclear weapons to defend Russian territorial integrity, which in his twisted version of the History, would currently be threatened by the West.
Marko, who has seen tons of Russians around him swallow Kremlin propaganda for months, believes that many of them are opening their eyes, getting rid of the “poison of disinformation”. However, he does not intend to stay there to see the results of this slow detoxification.
Even if he is not a reservist, he fears that the border will quickly become a place of excessive control. So he crosses his fingers, hoping to get out without hassle. “Let’s not worry for nothing. The good wind is on our side. Even if the authorities block my path, I will never go to war. Everything will end well. I’m sure of it,” he wrote to me.
I would like to share his regained Olympian calm.
* Fictitious first name