Every Wednesday, our parliamentary correspondent in Ottawa Marie Vastel analyzes a federal political issue to help you better understand it.
The electoral success of Marine Le Pen, who again saw her support grow during the French presidential election, is only the latest example of a rise in populism among Canada’s closest allies. And Canadian society has never been immune, as evidenced by the popularity of Pierre Poilievre’s speech. The federal parties should learn from the French election and see it as a warning, both on the Liberal side and even on the Conservative side.
Nuances are in order, before comparing Marine Le Pen to Pierre Poilievre. The aspiring conservative leader advocates a libertarian policy and does not veer into the extreme right. His speech is not anti-immigration or described as xenophobic. The political systems of France and Canada are also different, with the former electing its presidents by direct ballot while a Canadian prime minister must be elected by winning a majority of constituencies.
But Mr. Poilievre has taken the same approach as other populist politicians before him: wooing citizens who feel left behind by their governments; to present himself as the sole defender of this ignored people; and offer them simplistic, not always realistic solutions (the use of cryptocurrency to circumvent inflation, for example — a claim deconstructed by the Bank of Canada — or solve the housing crisis by cutting off federal money paid to municipalities who do not build enough, while these investments go through the provinces, which oversee the cities).
The strategy resembles that of Marine Le Pen, Donald Trump or Boris Johnson. And so far it appears to be paying off, with Mr Poilievre attracting hundreds, if not thousands, of onlookers to his rallies and being seen as the leader of the race.
Favorable climate
“It was inevitable that Canadian conservatism would in turn be imbued with a populist current. This shift has happened in so many countries, why would Canada have been exempt? observes Cristine de Clercy, associate professor of political science at the University of Waterloo.
This breakthrough of populism here is not the work of Pierre Poilievre. Maxime Bernier joined it before him, by creating his People’s Party of Canada (PPC) to oppose the traditional parties. Doug Ford was elected premier of Ontario by presenting himself as the “man of the people” who would reduce the role of the state.
“Certain elements lead to think that we are witnessing a populist turn by Pierre Poilievre,” agrees Katryne Villeneuve-Siconnelly, doctoral student in political science at Laval University, whose research focuses on populism. It remains to be seen whether the aspiring leader will maintain the same speech by the vote on September 10, then to run for a general election if he wins. And if the Canadian population will subscribe to this shift during elections, while popular support remains marginal for the moment.
“There is clearly something going on. But it will take several electoral cycles before we see if this phenomenon really takes hold or if it was a flash in the pan caused by the pandemic context, which provided the channel for channeling citizen frustration, ”explains Ms.me Villeneuve-Siconnelly.
The firm Proof Strategies, which measures the confidence index of Canadians every year, reported in January a significant decline during the pandemic in this confidence in governments and the media (from 33% in 2020 to 22% in 2022, in the first case, and from 44% to 35%, in the second).
At the same time, Maxime Bernier’s PPC went from 1.6% of the votes collected in the 2019 ballot to 4.9% in 2021. Éric Duhaime’s new Conservative Party of Quebec would collect 14% of the intentions to vote at the provincial level, according to the projections of the 338Canada site.
Double-edged
The results of the French presidential election, however, show that although Marine Le Pen’s score peaked at 41.5%, it was nevertheless President Emmanuel Macron, center, who won re-election. M’s attemptme Le Pen to soften his populist speech, to win the second round, was not enough.
Professor de Clercy sees in it all the challenge that awaits Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party, which according to her is at a crossroads in deciding, during this race, whether he endorses the turn proposed by the candidate.
“Populism is as much a threat to modern Canadian conservatism as it is an opportunity. The party could broaden its electoral base, but also lose support in the process. Mr. Poilievre therefore risks having to refocus, if he wins the chiefdom. But his predecessor Erin O’Toole was shown the door precisely because he was going back on his positions, recalls Mme of Clercy.
Liberals are no exception. The rise of populist movements around the world demonstrates that marginalizing them only strengthens those who adhere to them. Citizens who can be noisy and cause headaches for the government, as truck convoys did. The Liberal Party should therefore try to respond to the grievances of less radical disgruntled people, without denying its ideologies, for example by backing down in part as it did on the wearing of masks, but not on compulsory vaccination, suggests the professor. .
Although “Canadian populism” may be less radical than that observed in the United States or Europe, it would be a mistake for Justin Trudeau to believe that Canada is entirely protected from it. But also for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives to believe that he offers them a very simple solution that would guarantee them electoral success.