The House of Culture in Stockholm is a sort of Swedish Beaubourg strongly marked by the modernist architecture of the 1960s. On its large square which has aged badly, Taje came from Eskilstuna, 100 kilometers west of the capital , to hold a kiosk. The entrepreneur who runs a small forest products company wants to believe that on Sunday the voters will bring the right-wing bloc backed by the Democrats of Sweden (SD) to power.
“In this country, we had a good defence, good schools, a good energy policy and little immigration, all of this has deteriorated over the years”, says this former social-democrat activist who joined the party populist. “They call us racists, but it doesn’t work anymore. We expelled the neo-Nazis who were there when the party was founded a long time ago. We have become a normal party. We were even the first to raise the problems of immigration and criminality now recognized by all. I prefer to vote for the original than for the copies. »
While the left and right blocs that will face off on Sunday are neck and neck in the polls, to everyone’s surprise Sweden’s Democrats seem to have crossed a new threshold. With 20% of popular support, the party is set to become Sweden’s second largest political party, behind the Social Democrats (SAP) at 28% and ahead of the conservative Moderates (M) party at 18%. . A feat for a party long banned from parliamentary life and whose first president, Anders Klarström, was clearly identified with National Socialism.
These sulphurous origins that no one denies regularly remake the headlines. In this campaign, no less than five candidates had to resign after old statements – anti-Muslim or anti-Semitic – resurfaced. On TV4 on Wednesday, leader Jimmie Akesson reiterated what he has been hammering since more than ten years ago he took over the leadership of the party to expel its most radical elements: “We are continuing this policy of zero tolerance [à l’égard du racisme] by expelling these people from our electoral lists. »
Populists on the rise
This kind of incident does not seem to have any effect on the constant progress of the Democrats, recognizes political scientist Johan Martinsson, of the University of Gothenburg. “We expected the party to decline in the polls. The opposite is happening. Martinsson points to the fact that when, every summer, all the Swedish parties take part in the traditional Visby meeting, which brings together thousands of activists of all tendencies on the island of Gotland, it is not uncommon for participants to wear Democrat t-shirts.
Recently, this progress has been shaking the fragile balance of the right-wing bloc made up of the Moderates (conservatives) of Ulf Kristersson, the Christian Democrats of Göran Hägglund and the Liberals of Johan Pehrson. In a context where the two blocs are practically equal in the polls, if, on Sunday, the Democrats were ahead of the Moderates, it would constitute a small revolution in Swedish political life.
Sweden could find itself in the strange situation of seeing Ulf Kristersson come to power even if he leads only the third largest party, while the second would be excluded. Because, if the Moderates created a shock (and caused the departure of the centrists) by announcing that they would agree for the first time to govern with the parliamentary support of the Democrats, there can be no question either for them or for their liberal allies of allow them to participate in government. And this, even if Kristersson likes to recall that this has already been the case in Austria, Finland and Norway.
A “normal” party?
It is no coincidence that the small flame that adorned the logo of the Democrats of Sweden has been replaced by an anemone. For four years, the Democrats have run the city of Sölvesborg, in the south of the country, without too much trouble. The only real changes are that night patrols now roam the city and the rainbow flag of gay activists has disappeared from public buildings.
While the party may not yet be quite considered “normal”, it is clear that it has changed a lot and has become a predominantly conservative and nationalist party, Martinsson believes. “Jimmie Akesson would also benefit from being magnanimous and humble by agreeing not to participate in government. This will not prevent him from having a great influence in the negotiations. Strangely, this could tilt the government to the left since the Democrats have a more left-wing economic agenda than other right-wing parties. »
Despite everything, beyond the grand declarations that make the headlines, Swedish political life seems to be taking its course. Since the entry into the Parliament of the Democrats of Sweden (in 2010), the parties have learned to collaborate without too much difficulty. “In daily work, we are far from the animosity of the public declarations of the campaign, confides to us a civil servant who works at the Riksdag, the Swedish Parliament. We have a long tradition of political consensus and negotiation in this country, and that should not change. »
The left divided on NATO
But it’s not just the right-wing bloc that drags its divisions. The one on the left is not in a better situation. Since the defection of the Greens last year, Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson has led a minority government. His campaign focused primarily on reducing immigration and the fight against crime that manifests itself in the suburbs has not only made him friends on the left. “If the left bloc wins, the negotiations will not be easy,” says Martinsson.
This is without taking into account Sweden’s choice to join NATO. Parliamentary support from the Social Democrats, the Left Party has always been opposed to this integration. Its leader, Nooshi Dadgostar, has also unsuccessfully called for a referendum on the subject. Since the Russian aggression in Ukraine, observers note, it took only a few months for Sweden’s traditional policy of neutrality to evaporate. A policy established in the 19th centurye century !
“Our traditional solidarity with Finland played an important role in this historic decision,” explains the head of international relations of the Social Democratic Party, Johan Hassel. This is one of the reasons, he says, why, despite its parliamentary support, it is out of the question for the Left Party to participate in government.
In this country, the political debate has always been rather harmonious, says Anders Mellbourn, former editor of the Stockholm daily Dagens Nyheter. “However, in recent years, he has never been so acrimonious. The problem is that we are trying to fit this election into the traditional left/right scheme. But it does not work. Within the left as within the right, one scarves. However, the two great parties of right and left have never been so close to each other. »
In the press, the idea of a German-style “big coalition” bringing together the Social Democrats and the Moderates, possibly with the support of the Center Party, is beginning to gain ground. “In times that have never been so bleak with the war in Ukraine, the COVID pandemic and the energy crisis, it may be time to try something different,” says Anders Mellbourn. One thing is certain, whoever wins on Sunday will only win by a very small margin.