The victory of the young progressive Gabriel Boric as elected president of Chile confirms a strong tendency which is blowing in Latin America in favor of governments clearly identified on the left. It all started with the election of Andrés Lopez Manuel Obrador in Mexico in 2018, which preceded the victory of the Peronist wing of Alberto Fernández in the 2019 election in Argentina; This was followed by the re-election of the Mouvement vers le socialisme (MAS) in Bolivia in 2020, the snatching victory of the radical left in Peru and the election of Xiomara Castro in Honduras in 2021.
These governments, which are proposing deep social restructuring, enjoy favorable support from the population, even if the results have been mixed to date. A dominant feature of these elections is undoubtedly the significant polarization in public opinion.
Five factors can explain this desire for change among the population: the pandemic, migration crises, climate change, corruption scandals as well as social inequalities.
Brazil has the worst pandemic toll in the region with more than 600,000 dead. The management of President Jair Bolsonaro, which has been severely criticized, could hint at the political approach that a right-wing government elected in a neighboring country could take. It therefore becomes more obvious for the population to fear failures and failures with a populist style of government advocating non-interventionist or even non-thoughtful management.
We know, moreover, that the phenomenon of migratory crises is accentuated by the increase in armed conflicts linked to drug trafficking as well as by the socio-political crisis in Venezuela, which has been wreaking havoc since 2010.
The massive flows of refugees are only increasing, causing negative effects that have an impact on the populations and public systems of the countries that host them. One emerging trend is where right-wing parties that call for a return to law and order by fueling a sense of fear no longer seem to have a hold on the population.
The negative impact of climate change particularly affects the primary resources of people living in remote areas, in particular for the supply of drinking water, which is becoming increasingly difficult.
Redistribution
The phenomenon of privatization of the production of primary resources, favored by right-wing governments, such as forest products, natural gas, basic foodstuffs as well as drinking water have increased the sources of State revenue without in so far as it allows an improvement in the needs of the population. A more equitable redistribution of the production of natural resources has therefore become a priority electoral issue in order to support the basic needs of the population.
Another salient feature of the various right-wing regimes was, without a doubt, the prevalence of corruption and administrative inefficiency. It seems that for these different regimes, initially supported by general public discontent, this gave rise to improvised and ill-prepared policies.
In the background, what emerges from recent years, on the political level, is the rise of social inequalities, which have led to a clear resurgence of popular demands in Latin America. Social media has only increased the strength and reach of these citizen movements touching on priority themes such as pensions, the cost of public transport, social programs for the inclusion of indigenous peoples, allowances for children, universal access to health care and more.
The resilience of populations to the challenges of modernity seems to have given better results where the social fabric is stronger. Everything suggests that this trend will continue with the not insignificant probability of support for the leftist candidate Gustavo Petro for the presidential election of Colombia in 2022 and the possible election of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil in 2022.
The result of the election in Chile will give momentum to the political left in Latin America, and the intention of its new president to implement forward-thinking, but fiscally responsible policies, allows us to consider a certain optimism on improvement of living conditions and social justice for the country.
These left-wing coalition movements in Latin America seem increasingly strong to us, but they will be successful as long as they are able to deliver tangible results for the people. Although the latter is prepared to give a good margin of maneuver necessary to these doctrines to produce concrete advances, the sustainability of these political actors is not guaranteed, it is only the beginning of a long journey filled with challenges.