After 35 years of decline, a rebound is announced. The number of nuclear weapons in the world is expected to rise again in the coming decade, according to a benchmark report published on Monday (June 13th). Escalation risk now at post-Cold War era high, alert Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri).
Since its absolute record in 1986 (more than 70,000 head), this total has been divided by more than five, with the regular decline of the enormous Russian and American arsenals built up during the Cold War. At the start of 2022, the nine nations with “the bomb” held 12,705 nuclear warheads, 375 less than at the start of 2021, according to Sipri estimates.
But this era of disarmament is certainly coming to an end, predicts the Swedish research center. “Soon we will come to a point where, for the first time since the end of the Cold War, the number of nuclear weapons in the world could start to increase, which is a really dangerous phenomenon”, said Matt Korda, one of the co-authors of the work. After the drop “marginal” observed last year, the global arsenal should start to grow again “over the coming decade”according to Sipri.
The war in Ukraine has resulted in several explicit references by Russian President Vladimir Putin to the use of atomic weapons. Several other countries, such as China and the United Kingdom, are officially or unofficially carrying out modernization or development plans for their arsenals, the institute points out.
“It is going to be very difficult to make progress on disarmament in the years to come because of this war and the way Putin talks about his nuclear weapons”, according to Matt Korda. For him, these disturbing statements “caused many other nuclear-armed powers to rethink their own atomic strategies”.
According to the latest Sipri estimates, Russia is still the world’s leading atomic power, with 5,977 warheads (-280 over one year) deployed, stored or awaiting dismantling at the start of 2022. Nearly 1,600 of them would be operational, according to the institute. The United States has 5,428 heads (-120) but with more weapons deployed (1,750).
Next come China (350), France (290), the United Kingdom (225), Pakistan (165), India (160) and Israel (90), the only power of the nine that does not officially recognize that it holds the atomic weapon. As for North Korea, Sipri estimates for the first time that the communist regime of Kim Jong-Un has assembled 20 nuclear warheads. Pyongyang has enough fissile material to produce about 50.
Despite diplomatic statements, “all nuclear-armed states are increasing or modernizing their arsenals and most are toughening up their nuclear rhetoric and the role of atomic weapons in their military strategies”according to Sipri. “In China, a substantial increase in the nuclear arsenal is underway, with satellite images indicating the construction of more than 300 new missile silos”, says the organization. According to the Pentagon, Beijing could have 700 heads by 2027.
The United Kingdom announced, last year, to raise the ceiling of its nuclear arsenal and decided not to communicate the number of its operational weapons. France launched a new nuclear submarine program in 2021, and India, Pakistan and Israel also seem to be developing their arsenals, according to Sipri.