The New Popular, Ecological and Social Union is leading the voting intentions in the first round of the legislative elections, according to our Ipsos-Sopra Steria poll for Radio France and France Télévisions, published Thursday, June 9.
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Nupes totals 28% of voting intentions, just ahead of Together (27%), which represents the presidential majority. In third position, the National Rally won 19.5% of the vote. The Republicans, UDI and Divers right together total 11% of the voting intentions and the Reconquest party 6%.
At the end of the second round, according to this poll, the Nupes can hope to win 175 to 215 seats out of the 577 seats in the National Assembly. The presidential party, Together, between 260 and 300 seats. The RN would have between 20 and 50. In addition, the number of LR / UDI / DVD deputies is estimated between 35 and 55 and the number of various elected left between 10 and 18. “Even by doing a little less well than Nupes in the second round, the logic of deferral of voters who are not represented plays in favor at that time of TogetherBrice Teinturier, Deputy CEO of the Ipsos polling institute. You have a multiplier effect due to the voting method which means that you can find yourself in front in seats while you are at the same level, or even a little behind in votes.
However, Brice Teinturier warns of the uncertainty that reigns over this election: “There is really a certain fragility because it all depends on the postponements we will have between the first and second rounds. We have 127 seats which are played at two points and 62 seats which are played at one point. If you add to it that in 50 constituencies, the third is one point behind the second, you see right away how good you can have 40, 50 seats that can rip from block to block”he analyzed.
According to this survey, three quarters of those questioned (75%) are sure of their choice for the first round of the elections. In detail, 81% of people claiming to want to vote for Nupes ensure that their choice is final. Similarly, 81% of Together voters are sure of their vote. 70% of people opting for an LR, UDI, Divers right bulletin are certain of their choice. And 82% of RN voters assure that their choice will not change.
Finally, 46% of those questioned say they will vote on Sunday June 12 during the first round of the legislative elections, according to this survey. Participation in the first round of the 2017 legislative elections was 48.7%. “We are really in an election that does not mobilize people, with legislative elections that are struggling to find their usefulnessexplains Brice Teinturier, We have a participation which could be between 44 and 48%, therefore an abstention which could be 54%. In 2017, it was already a record, abstention was 51.3%. So, we are really in an election that is not very mobilizing.”
This Ipsos Sopra Steria survey for Radio France and France Télévisions was carried out online from June 6 to 7 among 2,000 people registered on the electoral lists, constituting a representative sample of the French population aged 18 and over.