Phew! Russian tanks will not parade on the Champs-Élysées. For a third time in two decades, the democratic forces would therefore have courageously pushed back fascism and the extreme right. At least that’s what one might believe from reading a certain French press which had not hesitated to associate opponents of Marine Le Pen with the memory of the resistant Jean Moulin, who died after being tortured by the Gestapo. . Fortunately, endurance certificates are now awarded without fear of bullets or torture. Just denounce the “foul beast” on Twitter.
Enough joking, because there was nothing funny in seeing France waking up last Monday with a hangover. It could be read on all faces. Those of the supporters of Emmanuel Macron, who did not have the heart to celebrate their prowess. Those of the supporters of Marine Le Pen, who tried in vain to disguise a humiliating defeat as victory.
Certainly, technically, with 58% of the votes, Emmanuel Macron is elected, and even very well elected. We know many heads of state who would envy him such a majority. As for abstention, it may well reach records under the Vand Republic (28%), it remains at a level that a majority of democracies, however exemplary, would welcome.
So where does the discomfort come from? If we can easily understand those who voted against a candidate who does not really have the level and whose program is deeply flawed and incoherent, it is clear that by replaying this ridiculous anti-fascist masquerade which consists of “blocking France avoided all substantive debates and chose nothing at all. At the end of this conjuring trick that was this sluggish campaign, the country therefore finds itself with a president who does not have the slightest mandate and who essentially risks sailing on sight while waiting for the next storm.
We look in vain for consensus that would allow the president to indicate a course. Even the flagship proposal of his thin program which would consist of raising the retirement age from 62 to 65 seems to have come out of the hat of an illusionist. The majority of French people are against it. Third political force in the country, the radical left of Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI) even wants to reduce this age to 60!
Same thing for immigration, a crucial subject on which Emmanuel Macron is also largely in the minority. It would have also reached heights under his mandate, according to the Observatory of immigration and demography. Not surprising that in the campaign, the candidate did everything to avoid the subject. Polls show that the French are massively opposed to the mass immigration that the country is experiencing and whose consequences are social, cultural and civilizational. Barring a miracle, the same frustrations will still be there five years from now. They will only increase.
The surveys also show that, without being the least bit anti-European, a considerable number of French people in Europe are demanding more sovereignty for the States. It is no coincidence that two of the three main forces in the country, the RN and LFI, hold similar speeches on this subject. How will a hot Europeanist president in favor of a federal Europe manage to lead an increasingly Eurosceptic population? The answer in five years.
One thing is certain, on these subjects and many others, the president will only be able to advance his positions at the cost of wavering and perhaps even violent confrontations. This is also partly what explains his permanent dithering between the left and the right, of which this campaign was a textbook case.
Add to this the fact that Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen have both chosen to campaign on the theme of purchasing power with billions of euros. If this way of doing things is ideal for avoiding angry questions, it also risks causing the greatest disappointment. Because the horizon that is taking shape in Europe is not that of growth, but that of stagflation which will drive up interest rates. Of the French debt, which already reached 113% of GDP, there was obviously never any question during this campaign.
But there is worse. The re-election of Emmanuel Macron raises the fundamental question of political alternation. What is a democracy worth without the possibility of alternation, as France seems to have become?
Contrary to the anti-fascist struggle, which could even justify taking up arms, alternation demands that we respect the legitimacy of the adversary. We can think what we want of Donald Trump and Boris Johnson, their election was despite everything the demonstration of a political system still capable of respecting the will of the other half of the country. Left to change his mind four years later. In France, we do not see when the alternation will be possible again as the rejection of the opposition party and its “deplorable” voters seems total in the elites and in the official media.
We had the astonishing demonstration of this recently. To punish the inhabitants of his town of Técou, in the Tarn, for having voted 52% for Marine Le Pen, the mayor has decided to no longer represent them. For having done the same, the inhabitants of Xirocourt, in Moselle, will be deprived of a festival this summer, decided the former mayor of the place. That will teach them! As Bertolt Brecht said, “Since the people vote against the government, the people must be dissolved”.