Ust-Luga, January 21, 2024. Flames are shooting out of the gigantic Novatek terminal: Ukraine has just begun a major campaign of strikes against Russian energy sites. But nine months later, while its effects are noticeable, they remain limited.
Oil refineries and depots play a crucial role in the Russian economy: in July alone, Russia earned 15.4 billion euros in revenue from the export of its black gold, according to the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE).
The goal for kyiv is therefore clear: to hurt the wallet and disrupt the supply of Russian troops, in retaliation for the daily bombings on its cities and its energy network.
In addition to Ust-Luga, at least ten other Russian refineries have been struck by the Ukrainian military since January, cutting Russia “at one point in March” by “about 16%” of its refining capacity, or about 1.1 million barrels per day, said Matthew Sagers, director of Russia Energy at S&P Global Commodity Insights.
“These are refined products used by the military and therefore completely legitimate military targets,” said a senior Western official speaking on condition of anonymity. “This puts pressure on the Russian war machine.”
More than 60% of Russia’s thirty or so large refineries – large sites that are therefore relatively easy to target – are within range of Ukrainian drones within a radius of 1,300 kilometres.
For Sergei Vakulenko, a researcher at the Carnegie Center, banned in Russia, and author of a note on the subject, the cost-benefit ratio of using drones equipped with an explosive charge of “between 5 and 50 kg” is interesting for the Ukrainians.
“Each attack probably costs (Kiev) between one and five million dollars per airstrike per site, a relatively low price for an attack on a multi-billion dollar target,” he explains.
An opinion shared by Matthew Sagers, according to whom the costs of the damage for Russia “range from a few million to several tens of millions of dollars” per strike.
Anti-drone solutions
Faced with regular attacks, Russian oil companies are trying to repair damaged sites as quickly as possible to limit losses.
“Many of these refineries were operational again after two or three weeks,” observes Sergei Vakulenko, who notes, however, that the time frame varies depending on the damage recorded.
“The big companies can redirect the oil” to sites further away from Ukraine, Matthew Sagers also specifies, “and they have also set up a defense system, buying anti-aircraft defense systems and installing anti-drone metal nets.”
Asked by AFP, the Kremlin considered the effectiveness of the Ukrainian strikes to be “minimal”, but the Deputy Prime Minister in charge of Energy, Alexander Novak, acknowledged that it was “impossible to prevent them 100%”.
The Russian government has also extended a moratorium on gasoline exports until the end of the year, “while scheduled repairs are carried out at refineries,” without mentioning the Ukrainian strikes.
After the repairs of the last few months, the unserviceable refining capacities “are currently close to 0%”, according to Matthew Sagers, “with the exception of (the large) Moscow refinery”, which was affected in early September. And global prices have not been affected.
Discussions
However, the reciprocal strikes on energy infrastructure remain a thorn in the side of Moscow and kyiv.
To the point that both sides would like to reach “a historic agreement” putting an end to these attacks, as the Washington Post ? According to the American daily, it was the Ukrainian offensive in the Russian region of Kursk that forced Moscow to interrupt the negotiations.
A source in the Ukrainian presidency dismissed the reports, saying that the only meeting planned on energy security was to take place with the countries participating in the first peace summit in June in Switzerland and “without the Russians.”
As for Moscow, “as long as we have not expelled (the Ukrainians) from our territory, we will not negotiate with them,” hammered the secretary of the Russian Security Council, Sergei Shoigu.
And a Ukrainian military intelligence official told AFP, on condition of anonymity, that the strikes will continue: “Their number and range are increasing.”