As winter approaches, Ukraine fears Russian strikes on its energy infrastructure. At the same time, the situation is getting bogged down on the front and is benefiting the Russians, believes Guillaume Ancel, author of the blog “Ne pas être”.
Russian strikes on Odessa, a large city in southern Ukraine, left at least eight injured and notably damaged an art museum on the night of Sunday November 5 to Monday November 6, according to Ukrainian officials. Ukraine, in difficulty at the moment, fears seeing Moscow launch systematic attacks on its energy infrastructure, like last winter. This forced heating and power cuts to millions of people. The information published in the Western media, reporting a failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive or tensions at the top of power in Kiev, did not go unnoticed in Moscow. For Guillaume Ancel, former officer and writer, author of the blog Be freetime is clearly on the side of Russia.
Guillaume Ancel, guest on Franceinfo on Tuesday November 7, attributed this stagnation on the front to “strategic errors” Ukrainians. “Contrary to what the allies had advised them, they decided to take time, to extend this offensive. This great offensive has become a long offensive. However, the allies had warned them that they only had reserves until October. Now, we can clearly see that they are at a low point because they used these reserves and the Russians did not give in as expected.s hoped for, especially in the Zaporizhia region”explains the former officer.
The writer nevertheless questions the means that Ukraine had or did not have to carry out a more rapid counter-offensive, as recommended by the allies. On the question of armaments, he notes that the allies had promised more than they provided, as had munitions.
“We all remember the endless debates about whether to provide tanks, then planes. All this should have been done from the start”
Guillaume Ancel, former officerat franceinfo
One element could change the situation and give the Ukrainians a real strike capacity in the coming months according to him: the arrival of F16 combat planes, even if this should not lead to radical change on the front. With this delivery of F16, “Will the support for Ukraine be enough for it to be able to resume this offensive or will, in collision with the war in the Middle East, in Israel, the support of Ukraine’s 50 allied countries , can weaken?”questions the author of the blog Be free. In the latter case, Guillaume Ancel believes that this would lead to “a sort of no man’s land, a freezing of the front and a possibility of negotiations, which would be quite infamous to recognize that Russia has the right to seize and invade against all legality”.
Should Ukraine open a new front?
Furthermore, faced with this stalemate, divergent voices have been heard in recent days in Ukraine, particularly from the general staff. Guillaume Ancel already underlines the difference with Russia because when Prigojine rebelled, “he had a slight problem with plane transportation”, he said in reference to the death of former militia leader Wagner. “In Ukraine, which “is a real democracy […] when the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces said he believed he was at an impasse, Zélensky did not deny it, he replied yes, and that alternatives must be found.”. For the former officer, this means opening a second or third front, either in the Kherson region or further east. On condition, he said, that the allies continue to support Ukraine, also knowing that “Russia is no longer leading anything in this war”.