The prospect of a victory for Pierre Poilievre in the Conservative leadership race frightens members of the moderate wing of the party to such an extent that some are brandishing the threat of a split if the MP for Carleton, in the region of Ottawa wins. They do not recognize themselves in the right-wing populism embodied by Mr. Poilievre, who has championed the cause of truckers who blocked the streets of the federal capital for three weeks this month. According to his detractors, his surly speech and his chronic impertinence betray his lack of seriousness. Under Mr. Poilievre, the Tories would become further bogged down in fruitless debates around questions of ideological purity. The disaster, what!
Potential rivals to Mr Poilievre are waiting to see what rules will be adopted by the internal committee of the party which organizes the race before entering the arena. Above all, they would like the vote to take place in the fall. An earlier vote would favor Mr Poilievre, with almost a quarter of Tory MPs having already given him their backing. To hope to catch up, they will need the time necessary to recruit thousands of new party members across the country. There are few potential candidates capable of performing such a herculean task. According to some moderate conservatives, there is only one.
“Canada needs you, Mr. Charest,” Quebec MP Alain Rayes and seven other Conservatives wrote this week in a letter imploring Jean Charest to run for the leadership of the federal party. Our country urgently needs an experienced leader like you to face major economic challenges. We need a seasoned statesman, visionary and unifier to curb the division and chaos caused by the federal Liberals. We need someone who is able to unite our party and rally a majority of Canadians, in both official languages. “According to several sources, the main interested party would take the love note sent by Mr. Rayes and company very seriously. This time, Mr. Charest seems to enjoy the support of most, if not all, of the Conservative MPs from Quebec from the outset, which was not the case in 2020, when the former premier Quebec minister had thought about getting into the race to replace Andrew Scheer. We remember that it was thanks to the Quebec members of the party that Erin O’Toole won the leadership race that year.
By giving the 338 ridings the same weight, regardless of their number of members, the voting system gave disproportionate influence to Quebec members, who were few in number compared to the legions of registered Albertans. Previously seen as a moderate, Mr. O’Toole knowingly courted gun owners and anti-abortion activists in Quebec, a strategy that allowed him to overtake centrist candidate Peter MacKay at the finish line. But that decision soon came back to haunt Mr. O’Toole. His attempt to refocus the party in the 2021 federal election has also failed because of his previous positions. And he could never recover.
No one expects Mr. Charest to make the same mistakes. If he enters the race, it will not be to win it on false premises like Mr. O’Toole. It will be by recruiting thousands of new members across the country to create a movement for an open and modern centre-right Conservative Party. The leftward shift of the federal Liberals under Justin Trudeau has created more space on the political spectrum than ever for such a party. It will certainly take a very gifted politician to achieve such a feat. Mr. Charest’s reputation in this area is intact. The poor quality of the competition could also help him enormously in his efforts. By doing so, the Conservatives could affirm loud and clear that they want to conquer Quebec for the first time since the days of Brian Mulroney without observers accusing them of dreaming in color.
Alas! On the right as on the left, multiple voices have been raised since the publication of Mr. Rayes’ letter in order to oppose a plea of inadmissibility to a potential candidacy of Mr. Charest. While some accuse him of not being conservative enough, others think his time leading the Quebec government has made him a pariah in the west of the country, where Quebec is seen as a bastion of right-thinking socialism. . Even in Quebec, where the memory of the PLQ financing scandal, which led to the defeat of Mr. Charest in 2012, is still vivid, his potential candidacy is derided by caquistes, péquistes and solidarity. With the exception of MNA Lise Thériault, the provincial Liberals seem to want to avoid mentioning her name at all costs.
However, the statements of some of its detractors should not be confused with public opinion in general. Many of these critics know full well that Mr. Charest, if he dives, will make a formidable candidate. It is from him that the federal Liberals have most to fear.