Shifting dynamics in Syria have led to a fragmented landscape, with various factions contending for power. Hayat Tahrir al-Cham has emerged as a significant force, particularly in Idlib, while Kurdish forces have established control in the north and east, aided by U.S. support. Turkey influences regions near its border, and local rebels have recently gained ground in the south. Despite setbacks, ISIS remnants still pose threats, while the Assad regime, backed by Russia, struggles to maintain its territory.
Shifting Dynamics in Syria’s Conflict
The ongoing conflict in Syria has led to a dramatic reshaping of the diplomatic landscape. Even with the decline of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, the country continues to be fragmented, with numerous factions vying for control over extensive territories.
Rise of Radical Islamist Groups
It comes as no surprise that the radical group Hayat Tahrir al-Cham (HTS) has emerged as a dominant force in Syria. This militant faction has secured a stronghold in the Idlib enclave located in the northwest, which previously served as a key bastion for armed opposition. Following their success in Aleppo, HTS launched advances into central regions such as Hama, and subsequently Homs and Damascus, the capital. Presently, they control approximately two-thirds of Syrian territory.
Kurdish Control and U.S. Involvement
Amidst the regime’s decline post-2011, Kurdish forces have established an autonomous governance structure across northern and eastern regions of Syria. With the withdrawal of government troops, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), primarily composed of Kurdish fighters, have made significant territorial gains, defeating ISIS in numerous confrontations. They currently dominate northeastern Syria, including parts of the Deir Ezzor province and control both banks of the Euphrates River after government forces and their Iranian allies retreated.
U.S. military presence is notable in these Kurdish-controlled areas, particularly in the oil-rich Deir Ezzor province and at the strategic al-Tanf base situated near the borders of Jordan and Iraq.
Turkish Influence and Local Factions
Turkey, alongside its Syrian allies, maintains control over a fragmented region between Afrin and Ras al-Ain along the Turkish border. They have successfully captured Kurdish-held territories such as Tal Rifaat, Deir Ezzor, and Manbij during their military operations in Aleppo.
Southern Rebels and Recent Gains
In the southern region, local rebel forces have recently capitalized on the disarray of regime troops, taking control of Deraa province and the significant border crossing with Jordan, which has since closed its border with Syria. This province, known as the birthplace of the 2011 uprising, had been under government control since a ceasefire agreement in 2018, which allowed rebels to retain light weaponry.
Additionally, local insurgents have reported seizing the neighboring province of Suweida, home to Syria’s Druze minority, following a withdrawal of government forces. This region had witnessed anti-government protests for over a year and a half.
Ongoing Threat of ISIS
Despite suffering heavy losses in both Syria and Iraq since 2014, ISIS remnants continue to pose a threat, carrying out violent attacks against civilians and opposing forces, including the regime and Kurdish fighters.
Government Forces and Russian Support
Since the onset of the conflict in 2011, the Syrian army has seen significant territorial losses to various factions, including Kurdish groups and ISIS. However, the tide turned with Russia’s military intervention in 2015, which provided crucial support to the Assad regime, allowing it to regain control over two-thirds of Syria. Recently, however, HTS and its allies have managed to reclaim some of that territory. Nevertheless, in western Syria, Russia remains a key ally of Bashar al-Assad, retaining control over the Hmeimim airbase and a naval facility at the port of Tartous.