(Nairobi) A series of pipe bomb attacks and beheadings in rural northeast Kenya last month have raised the specter of radical Al-Shabaab Islamists in the country neighboring Somalia.
Kenya, an economic and tourist power in East Africa, has not experienced a major attack since 2019 by the Somali group affiliated with Al-Qaeda.
However, less intense attacks still take place regularly in Lamu, Mandera and Garissa counties, located along the 700 km border between the two countries.
For a month, residents and authorities have been worried. Between June 3 and June 24, 24 people were killed (including 15 members of the security forces) in these regions, in six separate attacks attributed to Al-Shabaab.
One such attack, claimed by the Islamist group, saw civilians beheaded in a remote rural area of Lamu County, renowned for its islands in the Indian Ocean.
According to some analysts, the Al-Shabaab are once again turning to Kenya after being put on the defensive in Somalia, where the government of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud has declared an “all-out war” on them.
The Shebab, which had between 7,000 and 12,000 fighters in 2022, according to the CIA, have been facing for several months an offensive by the Somali army and local clan militias (the “macawisley”), supported by the force of the African Union (Atmis) – in which Kenyan troops participate – and American air strikes.
This military operation enabled government forces to regain ground in the center of the country. A second phase should be launched soon in the south of the country.
The attacks in Kenya are a way for them “to say that despite the pressure they are under, they are keeping the same strike force,” Nicolas Delaunay, director of the International Crisis Group for Eastern and Southern Africa, told AFP.
“It can also be a way of warning Kenya, which has pledged to participate in the Somali government’s offensive,” he continues.
“Disorganization”
Kenya has been targeted by Shebab since its military intervention in southern Somalia in 2011, then its participation in the African Union force in Somalia (Amisom, now Atmis) created in 2012 to fight this insurgency.
The jihadists, who take advantage of the porous border but also recruit local youth, carried out deadly attacks on the Westgate shopping center in Nairobi, the Kenyan capital, in September 2013 (67 dead), the University of Garissa in April 2015 (148 dead) and the Dusit hotel complex, also in Nairobi, in January 2019 (21 dead).
For Roland Marchal, researcher at Sciences Po Paris and specialist in Africa, the recent attacks constitute “revenge” after recent strikes by Kenyan air force against Shebab positions in Somalia.
“The leaders of the Kenyan security apparatus have been changed recently with the new Ruto administration (the president designated in August 2022, editor’s note) and there is a disorganization relating to the border”, he also underlines.
Jihadist attacks are not focused on Kenya. Ethiopia, towards which Al-Shabaab harbors historic animosity, said last month it foiled an attack in the border town of Dollo.
” Warning ”
Last month, an American official told AFP that the recent cross-border attacks were a “manifestation of desperation” by Shebab.
Despite the gains of the offensive by the Somali army and its allies, “the situation remains fragile”, however, recently warned the chairman of the AU Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamat.
Driven out of the main cities of Somalia in 2011-2012, the Al-Shabaab nevertheless remain firmly established in vast rural areas, from where they continue to carry out sometimes bloody attacks against security and civilian targets.
“There is a desire of the Shebab to show that they are resilient”, underlines Hassan Khannenje, director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies of the Horn, a think tank based in Nairobi.
These attacks must “serve as a warning for Kenya”, he believes, calling on the authorities to remain “vigilant”.
The Kenyan government has opted for caution. After announcing in mid-May the gradual reopening of its land border with Somalia, officially closed since 2011, Interior Minister Kithure Kindiki announced that it would postpone this measure “until we conclusively deal with the recent series of terrorist attacks and cross-border crimes”.