In 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping launched the titanic project of new roads of silk, officially called Belt and Road Initiative. Ten years later, The duty went to in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, two countries at the heart of these new trade routes. Second in a series of eight travel journals.
After leaving the dry port of Khorgos, we rush onto the passageways that have propelled Kazakhstan to the heart of the new Silk Roads. A sign of the country’s importance, it was from Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, that Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative ten years ago Initiative, BIS). A project which has undoubtedly deepened the links of the former Soviet Republic with its Chinese neighbor, although it has maintained its privileged relationship with Russia. A delicate balance that the war in Ukraine has shaken.
Barely 30 kilometers after leaving Khorgos, a stop is necessary at Jarkent, a small town which houses a mosque designed by a Chinese architect. A moving testimony to the confluence of cultures and civilizations that are at the heart of our journey, the building, built in 1895 without a single nail being used, is a true delight for the eyes. At the ends of Chinese pagodas, golden crescents, reminiscent of Islam, soar towards the sky. On the hand-painted wooden structure, Kazakh plant motifs sit alongside Chinese dragons.
With full eyes, but empty bellies, we stop to eat a beshbarmaka traditional dish made of horse sausages and large pasta, drinking a fermented mare’s milk called koumis, before hitting the road again. To our right, the snow-capped peaks of the Tian Shan, a majestic mountain range that stretches nearly 3,000 km across China and Central Asia, gradually disappear beneath the clouds, leaving us alone with the promise of seeing them again throughout of our route.
At their feet, herds of sheep, horses and oxen graze on the grass under the supervision of horsemen, reminding us of the nomadic past of the Kazakh people, as we drive towards Almaty, some 300 kilometers away. from the Chinese border, using the Western China International Transit Corridor, a highway which is part of the new Silk Roads.
Authoritarian regime
Capital of the country until 1997, Almaty remains the largest city in Kazakhstan. By navigating through traffic jams, we increase our meetings with experts to better understand the political and economic reality of this country, stuck between the Russian bear and the Chinese dragon.
“We are an Asian country with a post-Soviet mentality, where the majority of the population is Muslim,” skillfully summarizes Yevgeny Zhovtis, a human rights lawyer who heads the Kazakhstan International Bureau for Human Rights and Rule of Law. Since its accession to independence in 1991, Kazakhstan has been governed by an authoritarian regime, chaired until 2019 by Nursultan Nazarbayev, then by Kassym-Jomart Tokaïev, still in charge today.
“There is no real political opposition, no entirely independent media, apart from a few YouTube or Telegram channels, but as long as we do not pose a political threat to the government”, it leaves some room for maneuver to its citizens, adds the man who helped launch the first opposition political party in Kazakhstan in the 1990s, when a fleeting wind of change was blowing across the country.
Preserve
Although Kazakhstan, like other Central Asian countries, extricated itself from Soviet rule three decades ago, Russian influence is palpable everywhere. The common language remains Russian, although a large part of the population speaks Kazakh. TV and radio channels from Russia are broadcast across the country. And the big Russian brother is never far away to ensure that his private territory is protected.
For two decades, Kazakhstan has been trying to abandon the Cyrillic alphabet and replace it with the Latin alphabet in Kazakh writing. A decision which upsets Russia, causing numerous delays in the transition plan, several people whispered to us. Not to mention that it was the Russian army that restored order in the streets of Kazakhstan in January 2022 when the country was in the grip of intense anti-government protests.
The war in Ukraine, however, has reshuffled the cards. Many now fear that neighboring Russia will invade Kazakhstan, the largest economy in Central Asia, sparsely populated with 19 million inhabitants, but which represents more than half of the territory that Russia lost during of the dislocation of the USSR. In this context, “China can be seen as an actor contributing to rebalancing forces,” believes Kassymkhan Kapparov, dean of the School of Economics and Finance at the Almaty Management University. Shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Chinese President Xi Jinping promised to be there for Kazakhstan if its territorial integrity or sovereignty were to be compromised.
At the same time, Russia’s hold on trade with Kazakhstan is also waning, against the backdrop of accusations from the West that Kazakhstan is helping Vladimir Putin’s country to circumvent economic sanctions. In 2022, trade between Russia and Kazakhstan amounted to US$26 billion, while it increased to US$24 billion with China. The Middle Kingdom should soon take over the title of Kazakhstan’s leading trading partner, held by Russia since 1991.
Multi-vector diplomacy
According to Rasul Rysmambetov, a financier based in Almaty, President Tokayev, who speaks Chinese and has been a diplomat in China, rightly leads multi-vector diplomacy. The largest landlocked country in the world, surrounded by political and economic powers, Kazakhstan must diversify its trade flows and its political ties, he believes, welcoming the rapprochement with China. “Trade is the first step in any diplomacy,” he points out.
A maxim that applies just as much to China. For Kassymkhan Kapparov, the BRI is not only an economic project, but also a geopolitical one. By deepening its ties with the countries of Central Asia, China is placing its pawns in order to keep “friendly” regimes in power. First to secure its investments, argues the professor, then also to ensure that it is surrounded by secular regimes, creating a “buffer zone” with Islamic regimes. With stable and friendly countries near it, “China does not need to conquer the region, since it can have access to its resources in exchange for money,” he analyzes.
With Naubet Bisenov
To read tomorrow: The “ soft power » Chinese, or diplomacy through cheap goods and scholarships.
This report was financed thanks to the support of the Transat-International Journalism Fund.The duty.