Kaliningrad, a new hotbed of tension

We had almost forgotten Kaliningrad. But it was foreseeable that this small Russian enclave, wedged between two countries of the European Union and NATO (Lithuania and Poland), would in turn become a source of tension between Russia and Western countries in the context of the war in Ukraine. Explanations.

Jean-Christophe Laurence
The Press

What friction?

Since mid-June, Lithuania has started to impose restrictions on the rail transit of certain goods from Russian territory to this Baltic Sea city, as part of the numerous sanctions imposed by the European Union (EU) on the Russia.

Believing that this was a violation of an agreement signed with the EU in 2002, the Kremlin strongly condemned this act which it considers illegal.

Visiting Kaliningrad on Tuesday, Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev said that Moscow would respond to this “hostile” act with “appropriate measures”, which he said will have “serious consequences for the people of Lithuania”. .

Russia did not specify what retaliatory measures were on the table. But Maria Popova, a professor at McGill University, doubts that the response will be military.

This expert on post-communist Russia rather likens this “crisis” to a war of words, the escalation of which could be limited.

“Unlike Ukraine, Lithuania is a member of NATO and therefore protected by Article 5 safeguards. Russia knows that if it attacks Lithuania there will be an immediate response from the Alliance. I would therefore be surprised if it came to that. »

The most militarized zone in the world

Kaliningrad is the name of the city and the region where it is located. Just over 200 km^⁠2 of surface for approximately one million inhabitants, constituting one of the 85 “subjects” of the Russian Federation.

Caught in a vice between Poland and Lithuania, two member countries of the EU and NATO, this small territory, which was German until 1945 (under the name of Königsberg), is of major strategic importance for Moscow, since it overlooks the Baltic Sea directly and is a crucial outpost of the Russian army in Europe.

Its military vocation is not new, but faced with the expansion of NATO, Moscow has beefed up its presence there, notably organizing major maneuvers.

In recent years, nuclear-delivered missiles and S-400 air defense systems have been installed there. In February 2022, Russia deployed hypersonic missiles there, just before its troops entered Ukraine.

In addition to housing the headquarters of the Russian fleet in the Baltic Sea, the area would today be one of the most militarized in the world.

Her problem is that she has no direct access to the rest of Russia. Goods are transported there either by sea – slower and more limited due to the ice – or by land, via Belarus (an ally of Moscow), then for 70 km via the Suwałki corridor which crosses Lithuania. , a former Soviet republic, which became a member of the EU and NATO in 2004.

Not a blockade

Denouncing a “blockade”, the governor of Kaliningrad, Anton Alikhanov, estimated that nearly half of the goods intended for the Russian enclave could be affected, which forces Moscow to fall back partly on its maritime network.

Among the products concerned are coal, technological products, building materials and metals, before an extension to cement and alcohol next July.

The head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, however made it clear that Vilnius was not acting unilaterally, only applying the multiple sanctions adopted a few weeks ago by the European Union.

Borrell also stressed that transport between Russia and Kaliningrad had not been stopped or banned. “The transit of passengers and goods [non visées par les restrictions] continues. There is no blockade,” he said.

Cancel independence?

First Soviet republic to declare its independence, in 1990, Lithuania – just like Latvia and Estonia – is not at its first frictions with Moscow.

Maria Popova points out that Russia has been committing “low-intensity hostile acts” for several years against the three Baltic countries, increasing cyberattacks, non-compliance with certain treaties and violations of airspace.

The latest provocation in the context of the war in Ukraine: Russian deputies passed a bill at the beginning of June aimed at annulling Lithuania’s declaration of independence in 1990. M^me Popova concludes, however, that this text “has no legal value, because the country that issued the decree of independence was not Russia, but the USSR… which no longer exists”.

With Agence France-Presse