(Ottawa) With some 12 months to go until the start of the next election campaign, the bad news continues to pile up for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals.
After the tough defeat in the Liberal stronghold of Toronto–St. Paul’s in the June 24 byelection, after former Liberal cabinet ministers called for the prime minister to step down, and after Justin Trudeau’s political lieutenant Pablo Rodriguez indicated he was considering serving in other climes by running for the leadership of the Quebec Liberal Party, a poll shows that the Conservative Party is now slightly ahead in voting intentions in Quebec for the first time in ages.1.
Until now, Quebec was still the province where the Liberal Party of Canada was best able to maintain its support, despite national polls that have been multiplying over the past year and which give the Conservative Party a lead of between 15 and 20 points.
But according to a national poll conducted by the firm Abacus Data and released Sunday, the conservative tidal wave looming in the rest of the country is showing the first signs that it could have repercussions in the province.
Thus, the Conservative Party would garner 31% of support in La Belle Province if federal elections were held today, according to the latest Abacus poll. The Bloc Québécois would come in a good second at 30%, while the Liberal Party would come in third with 24%. The New Democratic Party (NDP) would have to settle for 12% of the vote.
The publication of this survey has fueled many discussions on social networks in the last few hours. Even close collaborators of the Premier of Quebec, François Legault, took the time to relay it on the X network.
Admittedly, the Conservative Party’s lead is slim — just one percentage point. This poll, which was conducted online among 1,550 people between July 31 and August 7, could be a statistical anomaly. Its results could be contradicted by others. The sample in Quebec is smaller. We will have to wait for polls from other recognized firms such as Léger before concluding whether this is a new trend.
The latest survey by this firm, which is well connected to the reality of Quebec, gave 31% of support to the Bloc Québécois, 27% to the Liberal Party, 24% to the Conservative Party and 10% to the NDP. The sample was comparable (1,561 respondents across the country and 348 respondents in Quebec). This Léger survey was conducted from July 26 to 28, while the political BBQ season was in full swing.
Crucial by-election
But if this is the start of a new trend in Quebec, the political consequences would be enormous.
The various parties would be forced to adjust their strategies. Tremendous three-way battles could emerge in certain ridings. Fierce battles between the Bloc Québécois and the Conservative Party could be captivating in the regions of Quebec. In Montreal, the Liberal Party could be vulnerable in more than one riding.
In light of this poll, the by-election to be held in the riding of LaSalle–Émard–Verdun on September 16 is of great importance.
Because from the moment the Conservative Party collects the magic number of 25% or more support, it enters “a paying zone” in terms of the number of seats it can hope to win in Quebec on election day, as the renowned pollster Jean-Marc Léger often points out.
In the last election, the Conservative Party won 10 seats in Quebec while garnering 18.6% of the vote. Pierre Poilievre’s troops could swing half a dozen seats to their camp if they manage to obtain the support of at least one in four Quebec voters.
“Quebecers are more conservative than they think”
The fact remains that the Quebec electorate, when seduced, can engage in a wave of support – the orange wave that propelled the NDP in 2011 and the “blue” wave that allowed Brian Mulroney’s Progressive Conservative Party to win a record number of seats in the country in 1984 represent two eloquent examples.
“We’ve always said it. Quebecers are more conservative than they think. We see it in this poll. The image we have of the Western Conservative Party no longer fits. Quebecers’ perception of our party is changing,” analyzed a conservative source, who requested anonymity in order to be able to speak more freely.
Faced with the rising cost of living and the housing crisis, Pierre Poilievre has been able to exploit to his advantage the desire for change that intensifies with each passing day. The Abacus poll reveals that 84% of respondents say it is time for a change of government and that only 16% support the idea of giving Justin Trudeau’s Liberals another mandate.
Since his election as party leader, Pierre Poilievre has been courting Quebec. As soon as the parliamentary session ended in June, he began a tour of a few ridings in the province in a recreational vehicle with his little family.
In the Commons, the Conservative leader attacks both the Trudeau government and the Bloc Québécois when he speaks in French. The same is true on social media.
Quebec Conservative MPs are adopting the same strategy. Just last week, Deputy House Leader Luc Berthold made a full-scale attack on the Bloc Québécois while his party called for an emergency meeting of the public safety committee.
Clearly, the Conservative Party will not be content to paint a good part of Ontario blue to take power in the next election. It is pulling out all the stops to obtain more than the dozen seats it has been able to collect in Quebec over the last two decades.
1. Check out the survey conducted by Abacus Data (in English)