Justin Trudeau’s former right-hand man and long-time friend is sounding the alarm about the rise of the sovereignist movement in Quebec, a threat that Canada is not ready for, he fears. In English Canada, he is not the only one.
Gerald Butts expresses his fears in a long text published Friday in the magazine The Walrustitled “Quebec’s secession crisis is coming, and Canada is not ready: why sovereignists see their chance now.”
In just over 2,000 words, Justin Trudeau’s former principal secretary explains how he believes Canada is heading toward a Brexit-like scenario in the United Kingdom within a three to five year window .
Canadian gloom
He identifies three winning conditions for sovereignists, including “excessive negativity” from the political class, foreign interference from Russia and opposing visions on the climate issue.
Confined in a country where gloom reigns, Quebecers have “taken refuge” in the Parti Québécois (PQ) and the Bloc Québécois in order to offer themselves “protection” against the election of Pierre Poilievre, a politician “also popular in Quebec than Justin Trudeau in Calgary,” believes Gerald Butts.
Current polls show Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s PQ winning, despite his promise to hold a referendum in his first term. At the federal level, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party is still unable to make a convincing breakthrough in Quebec, while it would win half of the votes in English Canada.
Russian interference
Mr. Butts also imagines active “foreign interference” from Vladimir Putin’s Russia in Canadian affairs, the objective being to sow “chaos” and increase the division between Quebec and the other provinces.
“It is difficult to imagine a greater opportunity than the dissolution of the United States’ largest trading partner and closest ally,” he wrote. “We Canadians are not used to seeing ourselves as a major strategic target of deadly foreign adversaries, but we should get used to it.”
Climate change
Gerald Butts also foresees that Quebec sovereignists will lead the battle on the environment and climate change, which will undoubtedly raise eyebrows in the Western provinces, especially Alberta.
“The sovereignists will say that independence is the path to prosperity for Quebec in the new energy economy, and that a “Yes” is the clearest possible affirmation of its determination to fight against climate change. “, he maintains.
Today vice-president of think tank geopolitical Eurasia Group, Mr. Butts calls the prospect of a constitutional crisis a “tragedy for Canada and a unique geopolitical problem for the United States.”
The warning from Mr. Butts, one of the minds behind Justin Trudeau’s rise to power, has already been shared by opinion leaders in English Canada, including journalists John Ibbitson, Stephen Maher and Andrew Coyne, who himself looked into the subject last week.