(OTTAWA) Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is heading to the NATO leaders’ summit in Lithuania this week, where Canada is expected to play a bigger role than usual on two crucial issues: increasing the number of members of the alliance and its efforts to refocus on collective defence.
Mr. Trudeau is expected to leave Ottawa Sunday evening for Riga, Latvia. He is expected to meet that country’s leaders on Monday before heading to the Lithuanian capital for the first day of the NATO summit on Tuesday.
At last year’s summit in Madrid, NATO leaders identified Russia as “the most significant and direct threat to the security of allies and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area. “.
This is what they have indicated in a strategic concept document which sets out their intention to strengthen deterrence and defense in the region.
This document follows a meeting held in Brussels in March 2022, during which the leaders decided to deploy four new multinational battle groups on the eastern flank, in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia. They will be added to those present in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.
The alliance has drawn up a new defense plan which the leaders will have to approve in Vilnius and which is described as a return to the Cold War position.
“What we are seeing today is a return to core NATO activities,” said Tim Sayle, NATO historian and professor at the University of Toronto.
He mentions that it likely also means a return to tougher negotiations among members, as they decide on defense policy and procurement, at the same time as they debate whether to allow Sweden and the Ukraine to join the European Union.
And on these two subjects, the allies will turn to Canada.
“Canada has a decision to make about its role in the Ukraine discussion, but it also has a decision to make about Canada’s defense spending and what kind of ally it will be,” Mr. Sayle.
Program Military Spending
Only a third of NATO members meet the agreed target of spending 2% of their GDP on defence, which means spending a fifth of that funding on equipment.
Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of NATO’s military committee, said he expected by the end of the summit the spending threshold would be set at 2%, rather than being just one goal.
For countries that are lagging behind, there will be increasing pressure to increase spending.
Canada spends about 1.3% of its GDP on defense and has no public plan to meet the current target.
Defense Minister Anita Anand insisted that Canada’s contributions to the defense of Ukraine and its leadership leading a NATO battlegroup in Latvia were more important.
Accession of Sweden and Ukraine
Leaders meeting in Vilnius are also expected to address the status of Sweden and Ukraine, which have both applied to join NATO.
Last-minute talks aimed at rallying Turkey and Hungary to Sweden’s membership application were unsuccessful. Its northern neighbour, Finland, joined more recently, in April.
The question of Ukraine’s membership is a little more controversial.
Some countries are pushing for immediate membership, such as the United Kingdom, which wants an accelerated process.
For his part, Mr. Trudeau has repeatedly stated that Canada is in favor of Ukraine’s membership “when the conditions are met”, without defining these conditions.
Before attending the NATO summit, Mr. Trudeau is due to take part in meetings on Monday with the President of Latvia, Edgars Rinkēvičs, and his Prime Minister, Krišjānis Kariņš.
Trudeau is also expected to meet with members of the Canadian Armed Forces who are part of the country’s largest overseas mission in Latvia.