Justin Trudeau: Liberals in handcuffs

(Ottawa) By tearing up without notice the support agreement he had concluded with the Liberals in March 2022, the leader of the New Democratic Party (NDP), Jagmeet Singh, has caused a period of political uncertainty on the federal scene.

Will a general election be held in the country this fall? What political party could come to the rescue of the Trudeau government if the Conservative Party carries out its threat to table a motion of censure? How will the Bloc Québécois use the balance of power it now believes it has in its hands? Could Justin Trudeau go ahead and get ahead of the fight by asking Governor General Mary Simon to dissolve Parliament and call an election?

But Jagmeet Singh has also created a certainty: he is ensuring that Justin Trudeau will lead the Liberal troops in the next election by forcing all parties to put their troops on alert now.

In such a context, Liberals who would like another leader to lead the Liberal troops in the next election must imperatively fall into line. Because it is impossible to organize a leadership race within a party in a short time when an election campaign could occur at any time. In normal times, a leadership race can last between three and six months, if not longer when a party occupies the opposition benches.

Similarly, Liberal MPs who might have considered organizing a mutiny, assuming that the next federal election would not take place before October 2025 thanks to the NDP’s support until next June, must banish that idea from their minds. Today, they must focus on doing what is necessary to ensure their own re-election, if they intend to run for office again.

This coup by the NDP therefore seals the fate of Justin Trudeau as leader of the Liberal Party, which must also find a new national campaign director following Jeremy Broadhurst’s decision to leave his post on September 30 for family reasons.

“Justin Trudeau is the best Liberal leader for us. This is even more true when you consider that the next election will be an election for change,” said a NDP source who requested anonymity in order to speak more freely.

“The Trudeau brand has become toxic. The Liberal brand is toxic as long as he remains leader. There is no one who thinks Justin Trudeau is going to win the next election. It is in our interest for him to be leader in the next campaign,” added another NDP source, who also requested anonymity for the same reasons.

This also explains Jagmeet Singh’s insistence on Thursday, 24 hours after tearing up the agreement, on presenting the next elections as a battle between the Conservative Party and the NDP.

It is also a maneuver aimed at neutralizing the strategic vote of certain voters, who would be tempted to support the NDP, but who could choose to support the Liberals once in the voting booth in the hope of blocking the Conservatives’ path, as has often happened in the past.

“Justin Trudeau has abandoned Canadians. People are tired of his disappointments and broken promises. Justin Trudeau’s Liberals cannot deliver the change and hope that people need. They are too weak and too selfish to stop Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives,” the NDP leader said during a press conference in Toronto that had the feel of an election campaign event.

Speaking to reporters, Singh acknowledged that his move makes a federal election this fall more likely. He would not say whether he would support a motion of non-confidence promised by the Conservative Party. “The timing of the election is uncertain, but we are ready.” […] “I’m not afraid to call an election,” he said.

Behind the scenes, it is confirmed that the question of the future of the Liberal leadership was raised during the deliberations that NDP MPs had in June, as the parliamentary session was winding down. It was from that precise moment that a consensus was formed on the need to end the support agreement before the end of this year, rather than respecting the June 2025 deadline that was set out in the agreement initialed between Jagmeet Singh and Justin Trudeau.

“Yes, that was something that was part of the discussions,” one of the sources said.

The only thing left for the leader to decide was when exactly to announce the political divorce. Singh concluded that the best time would be about two weeks before Parliament resumes, and before the by-elections in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, in the Montreal area, and Elmwood-Transcona, in the Winnipeg area.

In LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, voters are openly expressing their weariness and disappointment with the Liberals, according to NDP strategists. “But in Elmwood-Transcana, it’s anger!”

For several weeks, NDP MPs have been getting their ears worked up by their constituents when they return to their ridings because of the agreement that required them to support the Trudeau government in the Commons to ensure its political survival.

“We couldn’t be associated with the Liberal brand any longer, especially in the West,” says an NDP source. “Our MPs from the Prairies and British Columbia couldn’t answer the question: ‘Why are you keeping Justin Trudeau in power?’ In their case, the end of the deal is a relief. It’s a liberation. We checked a lot of boxes in the deal. But after two and a half years, the negative was outweighing the positive.”

Result: Jagmeet Singh’s bet is to exploit in turn the discontent towards Justin Trudeau, as the Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has been doing successfully for two years.