Justin, Donald and “a walk in the snow”

There are few things Justin Trudeau must hate more than releasing yet another bad poll on the day of a snowstorm.

Because it is inevitable that we will then talk about another storm, that of February 28, 1984, when his illustrious father, also faced with bad polls, went walking in the snow and concluded that the time had come to resign.

Except that if Justin Trudeau decides to go for a walk in the storm, it probably won’t be this winter. Because if one event could allow it to change the situation of the next federal elections in Canada, it will be next year, during the American presidential election on November 5, 2024.

At this point, we cannot predict with certainty whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden – or another candidate, although it seems unlikely – will win. For the record, let’s say that the two candidates are neck and neck and within the margin of error in the polls.

But one thing is certain, if Donald Trump wins, the “ballot box question” in the following elections in Canada will almost certainly focus on relations with the United States.

The question would then become: who, Justin Trudeau or Pierre Poilievre, will be best placed to deal with the unpredictable President of the United States?

Today, it is impossible to predict what Canadians would say.

One might believe that the reaction would be not to elect a prime minister who would be of the same political movement as Mr. Trump and that Canada’s interests would be better defended by Justin Trudeau.

After all, he was prime minister during Mr. Trump’s first term and did not do too badly, both in defending Canadian values ​​and during the renegotiation of NAFTA.

But for Mr. Poilievre, Trump’s election could also become a way of presenting himself as more centrist. He could try to show that he does not have the ambition to be the Canadian Trump and take an example from Brian Mulroney, who brilliantly succeeded in borrowing the vocabulary of Ronald Reagan, without adopting his policies.

Today, three out of four Canadians want a change of government and the Conservatives have a 19-point lead over the Liberals, who are no longer in the lead in any region of Canada, not even in Quebec, where the Bloc are now ahead of them.

There are now only 15% of voters who want the Liberal team to be re-elected, according to the most recent Abacus poll released this week.

Although we are two years away from the scheduled date of the next federal election, this is an advance that is starting to look like something insurmountable. Unless, of course, there is an event that could be associated with a political earthquake. Like a return of Donald Trump to the White House…

For Pierre Poilievre, the mere fact that we are going to talk more and more about Donald Trump could prove to be a handicap, and the American electoral campaign could become a trap.

In recent months, we have noticed changes in Mr. Trump’s speech, which is becoming more and more violent. He describes his opponents as “vermin”. He says the former army chief of staff should be executed. That shoplifters should be shot before they can leave the store, etc.

Mr. Poilievre will inevitably be called upon to comment on such comments and even if he dissociates himself from them, the fact remains that they will harm the message he would like to convey. And he might have to engage on topics he would rather not have to discuss.

As for Justin Trudeau, we already see him trying to associate his rival with Donald Trump, to show that the two men convey the same values, which are not those of the majority of Canadians^⁠1.

It is obvious that this is just a dress rehearsal and that come the election campaign, the liberals will resume this line of attack, especially if Mr. Trump were to be elected.

And if Mr. Biden were to retain the presidency, liberals would have no problem describing the conservative leader as the representative of outdated values ​​that no longer have the support of the majority of voters, on both sides of the border.

Currently, Mr. Trudeau must face almost every week a new poll which shows him far behind his conservative opponent, and he has few means of changing this dynamic.

Good news for the government would be lower interest rates and inflation in the new year. But it is not certain that this would be enough to modify the overwhelming desire of the electorate to change government.

On the other hand, the American election could, if Mr. Trudeau plays his cards right, become the bolt from the blue that would allow him to avoid going “for a walk in the snow.”