Jupiter in the land of the rebellious

(Paris) Jupiter is the nickname of President Emmanuel Macron. A nickname he gave himself long before his election when he was asked what kind of president he would like to be. That pretty much describes the one who practically refused to campaign before this week…

And these days, Jupiter is confronted with the “rebellious Frances”. In the plural, because we are not talking only about the left-wing party of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, but about all those voters who will exercise a protest vote. They will vote for parties that could be described as anti-system: from the super-nationalist right to the anti-capitalist left.

During the last presidential election, in the first round, 49% of voters had chosen one of these parties. This time, if we believe the latest polls, it will be a little more, so the majority of French people who will have voted in the first round for a party that could be described as anti-system.

Like General de Gaulle, who said: “How do you want to govern a country where there are 258 varieties of cheese? Macron might be tempted to say, “How do you govern a country where the majority of voters no longer believe in the system? »

What catches up with President Macron, at the end of the campaign, is precisely his Jupiterian side. Far from the concerns of his fellow citizens, as if the crisis of yellow vests at the start of his mandate was still brewing.

The war in Ukraine had, as is often the case, a “rally to the flag” and incumbent president effect. But Mr. Macron has lost that advantage since he started to really campaign.

What he is being criticized for these days is not taking care of the purchasing power of his compatriots while inflation is taking its toll.

And it was Marine Le Pen’s good fortune to realize early in the campaign that economic hardship was going to be more important to voters than her party’s traditional themes, such as immigration and insecurity. She adjusted her speech accordingly and, since the beginning of March, she has been earning one point per week.

The very last polls before the first round place M^me Le Pen and Mr. Macron neck and neck. Statistically tied in the first and second rounds. Something that was unthinkable just a few days ago.

Macron is only beginning to counterattack by saying that M’s program^me Le Pen is not quantified and that to promise that we will lower VAT and freeze prices, “is lying to people…”. Just like his promise to abolish income tax for those under 30 for five years.

It has been said a lot, for a few weeks, that the presence of the polemicist Éric Zemmour finally helped M^me The pen. By taking for himself the most aggressive speeches on immigration, the “great replacement” by Muslims, etc., he has “demonized” it.

But the fact remains that, in the program of the National Rally, there are still many elements that shock a good part of the French electorate: if they no longer want to leave the European Union, they want to withdraw from the large European market and restore borders. Just like the idea of ​​national preference which would make immigrants truly second-class citizens.

Obviously, Europe will be one of the themes of Macron’s campaign for the second round, if his opponent is M^me Le Pen, which remains the most likely option.

But, in these last days of the campaign, there is also movement on the left side. Three of the traditional parties of the left, the socialists, the communists and the ecologists, will not, together, make 10% of the vote.

Hence the call for the “useful vote” of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who has gained five points over the past month and who now ranks third. His chances of making the second round are slim – it would, in fact, require a major collapse in Macron’s vote – but he calls for a “barrier against the far right from the first round”. Already, another candidate, ex-minister Christiane Taubira, says that is what she will do.

But what is most worrying for the outgoing president is precisely that the Republican Front against the far right – which enabled him to beat Marine Le Pen by 66% against 33% five years ago – could not not reform so easily.

On the left, we are wary of a Macron who may have given the impression of campaigning on the left and governing on the right. In the traditional right, the Republicans of Valérie Pécresse – heirs of Gaullism – we will not give instructions for the second round.

A victory for M.^me Le Pen, who was unthinkable a few weeks ago, is no longer. But is that so surprising in a country where half of voters reject traditional political parties?